The global demand for photovoltaic installation continues to increase. The global photovoltaic market will maintain rapid development. It is optimistically estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be about 330 GW in 2023, an increase of about 37.5% over the same period last year. The global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 386 GW in 2025, and 17.16% of the global photovoltaic installed CAGR in the past 25 years. Photovoltaic will replace coal-fired units to become the largest power source in the world in 2027. It is estimated that the total installed scale of new photovoltaic units worldwide will exceed 1500 GW from 2023 to 2027, with an average annual installed capacity of more than 300 GW. The demand for new photovoltaic installations remains strong, and the company as one of the leaders in the polysilicon industry is expected to continue to benefit.
The particulate silicon-carbon footprint is outstanding. Compared with the improved Siemens method, the silane fluidized bed method has the advantages of easier purification, higher silicon content, lower decomposition temperature, and can more effectively reduce the energy consumption at the production end. Therefore, granular silicon helps to control photovoltaic carbon emissions at a lower level in the whole life cycle. According to the company's data, the average carbon footprint of large-size PERC components produced by granules is 400 CO2/ kilowatts, which is 28% lower than that of the same type of components that do not use granular silicon and has obvious low-carbon attributes. In the future global low-carbon economy, low-carbon green barrier trend, granular silicon market share is expected to continue to increase.
The application advantage of granular silicon + CCZ technology may be gradually highlighted. The granular silicon is spherical in shape and has good fluidity and filling. it can be used directly to fill the gap in the silicon block and increase the filling capacity of the crucible so as to increase the crystal drawing output. At the same time, granular silicon has many advantages, such as uniform size and shape, small disturbance to the thermal field of crystal drawing furnace during melting, large amount of single feeding, high melting efficiency, non-crushing and so on, which is a necessary condition for large-scale application of CCZ technology (continuous Czochralski monocrystalline silicon) in the future. We expect that with the development and promotion of CCZ technology path, the application scenario of granular silicon will be further optimized.
Investment advice: the future global photovoltaic newly installed demand will remain strong, as one of the leading companies in the polysilicon industry, we expect the company's silicon production capacity to reach 30 / 40 / 500000 tons respectively in 23-25, the acceleration of industrialization, coupled with the company's outstanding performance of the carbon footprint of granular silicon products, the R & D and promotion of CCZ technology path, will contribute to the continuous increase of granular silicon market share. We estimate that the 25-year homing net profit of 23murt will be RMB 126.92 + 12.554 billion respectively, compared with the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is RMB 0.47 / 0.46 / 0.58, compared with the same period last year, which is-20.82%. The company is given a target price of HK $2.50, corresponding to a "buy" rating of 4.9 times PE in 2023.
Risk tips: the newly installed scale of photovoltaic is not as expected; the price adjustment of polysilicon is higher than expected; the production capacity of granular silicon is not as expected; and the R & D and promotion of CCZ technology is not as expected.