2022 performance situation:
The company achieved revenue of RMB 212 million in 2022, an increase of 655% over the previous year. Revenue came from revenue from drug sales, commercial license fees and patents. Nerik achieved sales of 182 million yuan; losses of 883 million yuan during the reporting period were mainly due to R&D expenses and sales expenses, of which R&D expenses were 743 million yuan, a slight decrease over the previous year; sales expenses were 157 million yuan, an increase of 110 million yuan over the previous year.
Key product development is progressing smoothly, and results are about to blossom:
Olevatinib (Nelic) was approved for listing in China in November 2021, achieved sales of 182 million yuan in '22, and entered health insurance at a price drop of 6%. It is expected to be released in '23, and is expected to reach 360 million yuan. Drug-resistant CML-CP indications are expected to be approved within 1-2 months. Research and development of other high-value products is progressing smoothly. Among them: 1) The registered trial of the novel oral Bcl-2 selective inhibitor APG-2575 in China is expected to be completed by the end of this year, NDA in the first half of 2024, commercialization of APG-2575 in the first half of 2024, commercialization to begin in 25; 2) US clinical trials are progressing. Currently, it is actively communicating with the FDA and is about to enter registered clinical trials, 2575 market space. 3) APG-115, an effective, highly selective small-molecule inhibitor of MDM2-p53 PPI for oral administration, has obtained fast-track qualification from the FDA. This product is used for recurrent, incurable, unresectable/metastatic melanoma after immunotherapy. Currently, the company is conducting multiple phase II clinical trials in China and the US; 4) The innovative small molecule drug APG-1252 has now been certified as an orphan drug granted by the FDA to treat SCLC. Currently, paclitaxel phase II trials for SCLC are being carried out in the US/Australia, China Phase II studies of ocitinib in combination with ocitinib to treat NSCLC have now entered phase II; 5) The novel small molecule apoptosis protein inhibitor APG-1387 phase II trials for the initial treatment of chronic hepatitis B are ongoing in China, while phase II trials of the novel small molecule apoptotic protein inhibitor APG-1387 for the initial treatment of chronic hepatitis B are ongoing, the combined pavolizumab phase II trials for solid tumors conducted in the US and China respectively are progressing smoothly.
Once again, cover the purchase rating, with a target price of HK$29.85
Nelic is expected to expand rapidly, plus 1.4 billion yuan in cash, which is enough to maintain the company's continued operations. The company focuses on the field of apoptosis and has a unique innovation pipeline. As core products such as 2575 continue to advance and commercialize research and commercialization in China and the US, the company's performance will grow rapidly. The company's revenue for 2023-2024 is estimated to be RMB 425 million and RMB 691 million respectively, and net profit is RMB -696 million and RMB 590 million respectively. According to the DCF model, the company will be given a target price of HK$29.85, which has 46% room to rise from the current price, giving it a “buy” rating.