The company released its 2023 quarterly report on April 28. 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 3.19 billion yuan, an increase of 17.0%, net profit of 140 million yuan to the mother, a decrease of 17.0%, after deducting non-net profit of 140 million yuan, a decrease of 14.8%, and EPS of 0.12 yuan, a decrease of 20.0%. Considering the steady increase in the company's orders, the chemical fiber business became flexible during the year, maintaining the company's holdings growth rating.
Key points to support ratings
Q1 Revenue increased without profit: 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 3.19 billion yuan, an increase of 17.0%, net profit of 140 million yuan to the mother, a decrease of 17.0%, a decrease of 14.8% after deducting non-net profit of 140 million yuan, a decrease of 14.8%, and EPS of 0.12 yuan, a decrease of 20.0%.
Orders for steel structures have increased steadily, and there are sufficient orders on hand. 2023Q1 signed a new contract for steel structures of 3.44 billion yuan, an increase of 10.0% over the same period. It has won 78 unsigned orders, totaling 7.49 billion yuan. The company's orders have increased steadily.
Demand for chemical fibers improved and became elastic during the year. 2023Q1's chemical fiber sales reached 115,000 tons, an increase of 25.4%, or 12.0% over the previous month. The price of a ton was 6,514.1 yuan, a decrease of 4.5%, a decrease of 307.2 yuan, an increase of 0.2% over the previous month, and an increase of 11.5 yuan. Since 2023, the impact of the epidemic has subsided and consumption has recovered. Total retail sales of 2023Q1 social consumption reached 11.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8%. In March, retail sales of social consumption reached 3.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%. The consumer environment is improving, demand for clothing has recovered. Retail sales of 2023Q1 clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles increased 9.0%. Retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles reached 116.04 billion yuan in March, an increase of 17.7%. As the downstream boom recovers, the chemical fiber boom may recover during the year, bringing elasticity to performance.
Consolidate the “EPC General Contracting +1 Project” development strategy and drain BIPV applications. The company continues to raise brand awareness in the field of prefabricated steel structures and continuously consolidates the “EPC General Contracting +1 Project” development strategy. On the BIPV side, the company continues to explore and develop application scenarios using flexible modules through cooperation with photovoltaic companies such as daycare, Foster, and Hangzhou Longyan. As the price of modules falls, the distributed photovoltaic business is expected to usher in the release of orders during the year, increasing the company's profits.
valuations
Affected by loss of investment income, etc., the company's performance fell slightly short of expectations. Considering the steady increase in the company's orders, the flexibility of the chemical fiber business during the year, and maintaining profit forecasts, the company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 132.0, 147.0, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively. The net profit of the mother is 57, 6.1, and 680 million yuan respectively; EPS is 0.49, 0.53, and 0.58 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's holdings growth rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Prices of raw materials have fluctuated greatly, EPC projects have fallen short of expectations, and the recovery in downstream demand has fallen short of expectations.