Investment logic:
The profitability of PCB chemicals is expected to be restored, and the company's leading position is stable in the context of domestic substitution. In 2022, against the backdrop of rising raw material prices and weak demand, the company's PCB chemical gross margin fell to its lowest level in the past 10 years. In the future, as downstream demand recovers and inventories return to normal, demand and profitability in the PCB industry are expected to recover from the bottom of 11.1%, and the gross margin of the company's PCB chemicals is also expected to gradually recover upward from 11.1% at the bottom of 2022. Looking at the long term, as the global PCB industry gradually shifts to China and application demand in new fields increases, the company, as an industry leader, can rely on its technological advantages to expand customer resources, and its performance stability will further improve after the transformation of the product structure to the high-end.
The focus is on developing the lithium battery materials business, and scale expansion is progressing simultaneously with the integrated layout of the industrial chain.
The company began entering the lithium battery business in 2017, expanding production capacity from 40,000 tons to 34,000 tons by the end of 2022. Currently, there is still 26,000 tons of production capacity under construction. The company's lithium battery material revenue is estimated to be 139, 15.5, and 1.89 billion yuan respectively in the next 3 years. The company plans to raise 1.25 billion yuan through fixed increases, of which 1.17 billion yuan will be used to invest in high-performance lithium battery material projects. It plans to use cathode powder and anode sheets obtained by the company's dismantling of decommissioned lithium iron phosphate batteries as the main raw materials, plan to build a comprehensive recycling production line with an annual output of 50,000 tons of iron phosphate and 11,500 tons of lithium carbonate, and help the company build a “battery cascade utilization - battery dismantling - battery recycling - material recycling” new energy materials life cycle system.
Embracing the new era of lithium battery recycling, the company combines technical and channel advantages to seize market opportunities with rapid layout. As one of the first whitelisted companies of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the company has a first-mover advantage while its technology is constantly being updated, resulting in a comprehensive lithium recovery rate of over 95% and iron and phosphorus recovery rates of more than 98%. Currently, the company's partners include car companies, power battery manufacturers, passenger transport companies, etc., and have established extensive and stable recycling channels. As the scale expands, the company's lithium battery recycling business revenue is estimated to be 600, 1.37, and 2.64 billion yuan respectively over the next 3 years.
Profit forecasts, valuations, and ratings
We predict that in 2023-2025, the company can achieve operating income of 3.79 billion/4.93 billion/6.75 billion yuan, +15%/+30%/+37% year on year, net profit of 0.42, 23, and 360 million yuan respectively, compared to -64%/+458%/+55%, corresponding EPS of 0.11, 0.59 and 0.91 yuan, respectively. Considering that PCB chemicals in the company's traditional main business are expected to recover from the bottom in the next three years, the revenue and profit contribution of the chemical reagent business sector is relatively stable. The lithium battery materials and lithium battery recycling business segments have first-mover advantages, technical advantages and channel barriers. After the integrated layout of the industrial chain is completed, the overall profitability will be more stable, and the company has great potential for long-term growth. The company was given 32 times more PE in 2024, with a corresponding target price of 18.77 yuan. The first coverage gave an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning
The release of new production capacity fell short of expectations; prices of raw materials fluctuated greatly; prices of lithium battery materials fluctuated greatly; competition in the lithium battery recycling industry intensified.