Robortco's core logic:
1. One-sentence logic
The high-end optical module equipment business is expected to explode, copper plating projects are being actively promoted, and there is room for the company's profitability and valuation to rise.
2. Logic that exceeds expectations
(1) Market expectations: competition in the automation industry is fierce, the profitability of the company's automation business is low, the growth rate is slow, and growth is insufficient;
(2) We predict that the high-end optical module equipment business is expected to explode, and there is room for improvement in the company's valuation and performance. The reasons are: 1) Optical module technology is evolving at an accelerated pace in the direction of high speed/silicon light, and the proportion of silicon solutions is increasing at an accelerated pace. The company is expected to restart the acquisition of FiConTec, the world's leading company for high-end optical module equipment. The high-end optical module equipment business is expected to explode; 2) TopCon battery production was greatly expanded in 2023. Currently, the company's on-hand orders for automation equipment in the main business are strong; 3) the copper electroplating equipment project is actively advancing, striving to successfully build the industry's first high-capacity copper grid heterojunction battery production line in the third quarter.
3. Inspection and catalysis
(1) Inspection indicators: progress in overseas project acquisitions, progress in copper electroplating project testing.
(2) Possible catalyst: Fikontec restarts restructuring, and technological breakthroughs in copper electroplating metallization equipment and graphic equipment.
4. The value of research
(1) A different understanding: The market is concerned that the automation equipment industry is fiercely competitive and the company's growth potential is insufficient.
We believe that the market underestimates the determination and execution ability of the company to diversify its business. In terms of main business, photovoltaic automation technology has strong advantages, on-hand orders are sufficient, and development momentum is strong. Among the new projects, the copper electroplating project is progressing smoothly, and the layout of optical module equipment continues to advance. The joint venture Suzhou Fikontech introduced new investors to increase capital by 120 million dollars to acquire 7.36% of the German target's shares. We expect it to send a positive signal.
(2) A different understanding from before: The company plans to set up a semiconductor technology company in Nantong for heterojunction copper electroplating equipment R&D and manufacturing center. If European subsidiaries transfer mature semiconductor equipment technology to domestic production in the future, it will also bring new profit growth points, market space, and valuation room to the company.
Profit forecasting
The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 1.0, 170, and 210 million yuan respectively. 2023-2025 will increase 291%, 69%, and 19% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 63, 37, and 31 times. As a leader in high-end automation equipment, the company is expected to increase its two-wheel drive performance and maintain its “buy” rating in the future.
Risk warning
1) New technology expansion fell short of expectations; 2) The pandemic affected order delivery.