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科拓生物(300858):1Q23益生菌业务稳健 复配业务承压

Keto Biotech (300858): 1Q23 probiotic business is steady and compounding business is under pressure

中金公司 ·  Apr 18, 2023 16:00  · Researches

1Q23 performance is lower than we expected.

The company announces 1Q23 and 2022 results: 1Q23 revenue is-16.2% compared with the same period last year; homing net profit / deducting non-homing net profit is-14.5 Melissa 9.4% Traci revenue 1.2% year-on-year in 2022, homing net profit / deducting non-homing net profit is 0.320% year-on-year respectively. This performance is lower than we expected, mainly because the year-on-year decline of the compound business is higher than expected.

Trend of development

Probiotics business in 2022 and 1Q23 maintained a year-on-year high double-digit growth rate, and the gross profit margin was stable driven by high barriers in the industry. Driven by the promotion of the concept of health, the prosperity of the downstream of probiotics remains at a high level, which provides support for the rapid growth of the company's probiotic business. According to the company announcement and our estimates, the revenue of 2022/1Q23 probiotics business accounts for 38% / about 60-70% respectively, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 87.1% / about 100% (of which sales / ASP in 2022 are 112% and 11.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. The price reduction is the natural decline after the expansion of the company's business scale), and because the competition in the probiotics industry is dominated by the competition in the R & D side and the company has a leading advantage in the volume of the strain bank, commercial strains and star strains, the company's probiotic business is growing rapidly while the gross profit margin remains high. In 2022, the gross profit margin of the probiotic business reached 63.3% the same as that of the same period, and we estimate that the gross profit margin of 1Q23 will also maintain this level. Drive the company's 1Q23 gross profit margin year-on-year + 1.1ppt. Looking forward to the follow-up, we believe that probiotics as a track with low permeability, high growth and high barriers still has investment value, and the increase in the proportion of probiotics business will lead to the continuous improvement of the company's profitability. at the same time, we pay attention to the catalytic performance of the company's probiotics during the festival season.

1Q23 revenue performance is lower than expected due to the pressure of the recombination business, and we expect to maintain the pressure situation in 2023. According to the company announcement and our estimates, the revenue proportion of 2022/1Q23 compounding business is 47% / about 30-40%, corresponding to-27.7% / about-60% year-on-year, of which sales / ASP in 2022 is-19.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to a certain decline in downstream room temperature yogurt demand due to limited gift scenarios, and considering that the strategic cooperation signed between the company and its major customer Mengniu in 2020 is still valid this year. We expect this decline may be mainly due to the weak recovery of room temperature yogurt. We suggest that we should pay attention to the recovery of downstream room temperature yogurt demand and customer changes.

Profit forecast and valuation

Due to the greater pressure on the recombination business than we expected, we lowered the net profit in 2023 and 2024 by 27.5 percent to 1.29 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 20 percent to 31.48 yuan, corresponding to the 2023 plaza, which corresponds to the 43max 30X Pmax E in 24, and the current share price corresponds to the 4732X Pmax E in 24, which is 8.8 percent lower than the target price and maintains an outperforming industry rating.

Risk

The downstream demand of the compound business continues to decline, the probiotics downstream is sustainable, the competition in the probiotics industry is intensified, the customer expansion is not as expected, the customer concentration is on the high side, and the food safety problem.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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