投资业务拖累，一季度边际改善。2022 年公司经纪、投行收入分别下滑19.06%和9.11%，资管业务收入增长11.79%至10.29 亿元，资管业务收入实现连续4 年增长；利息净收入增长4.96%至2.09 亿元，但投资业务收入大幅下滑79.87%，拖累业绩。2023Q1 实现投资业务收入2.09 亿元，较去年同期增加2.35 亿元，推动营业收入及归母净利润改善。Event description:
The company released its 2022 annual report and 2023 quarterly report. It achieved operating income of 2,611 million yuan in 2022, -19.77% year on year, and net profit of 401 million yuan to the mother, -46.22% year on year. The weighted average ROE was 2.76%, down 2.5 pct from the previous year. 2023Q1 achieved operating income of 692 million yuan, an increase of 30.17% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 141 million yuan to the mother, an increase of 95.96% over the previous year.
Key points of investment:
The investment business was dragged down, and there was a marginal improvement in the first quarter. In 2022, corporate brokerage and investment banking revenue fell 19.06% and 9.11% respectively, asset management business revenue increased 11.79% to 1,029 million yuan, and asset management business revenue increased for 4 consecutive years; net interest income increased 4.96% to 209 million yuan, but investment business revenue fell sharply by 79.87%, dragging down performance. 2023Q1 achieved investment business revenue of 209 million yuan, an increase of 235 million yuan over the same period last year, driving improvements in operating income and net profit to the mother.
The asset management business bucked the trend, and fixed income+ has distinct characteristics. In 2022, the company's strategic goal was to “become a securities company with fixed income characteristics and asset management business as the core”, and successfully achieved contrarian growth in the asset management business. 1) The characteristic layout of “One Control, One Participant”: First Venture also holds “Chuangjin Hexin” and shares in Yinhua Fund. As of the end of 2022, Chuangjin Hexin's total fiduciary management capital was 839.510 billion yuan, an increase of 28.79 billion yuan over the end of 2021, an increase of 3.55%, of which public funds amounted to 86.576 billion yuan, an increase of 17.415 billion yuan, an increase of 25.18%. 2) Build a “fixed income +” product lineage: the company continues to promote active management transformation, consolidate the first-mover advantage of ESG and FOF asset management, consolidate the innovative characteristics of ABS, and lay out public REITs business.
The transformation of fixed-income businesses to transaction-driven businesses. In 2022, the company promoted sales coverage of fixed income products. The total number of institutional customers increased by 42.37%, and the number of local government bond underwriters in provinces and cities across the country increased by 4 to 33. The number of groups ranked first among brokerage firms, ranked 8th in the industry in the number of regions that won bids for local government bonds, and the fixed income advantage was relatively stable.
Equity and bond financing in the investment banking business has both increased. A venture capital bank formed an “integrated two-wing” layout of North, Shang and Shenzhen, and was deeply involved in the medical and health, military, and new materials industries. The underwriting amount of equity financing in 2022 was 8.990 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.91%. The main underwriting amount ranked 25th in the industry; debt financing completed 34 projects, with a total underwriting amount of 12.755 billion yuan, +6.74% over the same period last year. The development was relatively stable.
Profit forecasting, valuation analysis and investment suggestions: The company's asset management business has been deeply accumulated, and fixed income+ helps the company's characteristic development; the company laid out in the ESG field early and explores the application of the “ESG integration+negative screening” strategy in fixed income asset management. As the market recovers in 2023, the company's performance is expected to grow. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 513 million yuan, 593 million yuan and 669 million yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, up 28.05%, 15.64% and 12.66%; PB is 1.47/1.35/1.25 respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings - A” rating.
Risk warning: The financial market fluctuated greatly, business progress fell short of expectations, and the company experienced major risk events.
