增长原因：1）风电大齿轮项目开始贡献收入。2023Q1 公司收入同比增30%，系公司大齿轮项目部分工序产线已进入试生产阶段；同时东汽子公司收入亦有所增长。2）成本缓解。由于原材料价格下跌，2023Q1 公司毛利率重回21%，环比增7pct，逼近2021H1 水平。3）收到高质量补助。公司收到高质量发展补助0.38 亿元。Incidents:
The company achieved net profit of 73 million yuan to the mother in 2023Q1, an increase of 248% over the previous year and an increase of 219% over the previous month; it realized deduction of non-net profit of 41 million yuan, an increase of 228% over the previous year.
Comment:
Reasons for the increase: 1) Wind power big gear projects have begun to contribute revenue. The revenue of the 2023Q1 company increased 30% year-on-year, which means that part of the production line of the company's big gear project has entered the trial production stage; at the same time, the revenue of Dongqi's subsidiary has also increased. 2) Cost mitigation. Due to falling raw material prices, 2023Q1's gross margin returned to 21%, an increase of 7 pct over the previous month, close to the 2021H1 level. 3) Receive high-quality grants. The company received 38 million yuan in grants for high-quality development.
The supply of large gears for wind power is in short supply and has entered a performance release period: 1) Large-scale gearbox component finishing projects, driven by the three factors of large-scale wind power, model changes, and an increase in the deep-sea ratio, demand has exploded, but supply is seriously insufficient. Currently, it may be the most scarce part of wind power. 2) The company's product expansion pace is ahead of its peers, and construction began in October 2021; 3) Some process production lines have already entered the trial production stage, and the company is actively promoting project construction and downstream customer expansion work simultaneously.
The casting business has bottomed out: the company's production capacity of 200,000 tons of castings is impressive, and insufficient demand for 2021H2-2022 affects the operating rate, which in turn drags down performance. As the wind power tender project gradually entered the delivery period and fan prices gradually bottomed out, the casting business began in 23Q1, which ushered in improvements, gradually contributing to increased profits.
Other businesses are rising steadily: 1) The traditional gear steel business is steady, and military high-temperature alloys and high-strength steels are progressing steadily. The above have all benefited from falling raw material costs and improving quarterly; 2) The business barriers of Dongdong Automobile's subsidiaries are high. They are about to enter a harvest period, and production volume is compounded by falling costs.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the company's 2023Q1 report, we forecast the company's 2023-2025 revenue of 45/70/8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34%/56%/21% over the previous year; we maintain the 2023-2024 performance forecast, that is, the net profit returned to the mother in 2023-2025 will be 4.0/7/0/1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 291%/75%/43% over the previous year. The corresponding PE is 16/9/6x respectively; the company's growth is strong and is significantly underestimated, so the company's “buying” is maintained ratings.
Risk warning: demand falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate.
