Performance review
2022 and 1Q23 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced 2022 and 1Q23 results: in 2022, the company achieved revenue of 5.445 billion yuan, +34.01% year on year; net profit of the mother was 9.21 yuan, +45.28% year on year, in line with our expectations.
In 1Q23, the company achieved revenue of 1,751 billion yuan, +27.49% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 2.81 yuan, +35.07% year on year, in line with our expectations.
Development trends
1Q23 saw steady growth in performance and improved profitability. In 1Q23, the company achieved operating income of 1,751 million yuan (+27.49% YOY) and net profit of 281 million yuan (+35.07% YOY) to the mother, with steady growth in performance. In 1Q23, the company's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 1.31%/7.34%/4.50%/0.45%, respectively, and -0.13/-1.66/-0.18/-0.46pct respectively, gross margin was 36.90%, +1.54 pct year on year, +2.47pct month-on-month, and profitability improved.
The CDMO business is growing rapidly, and the project pipeline continues to be enriched. In 2022, the company's CDMO business achieved revenue of 3.417 billion yuan (+47.84% YOY). The company's project pipeline penetration rate with large European and American pharmaceutical companies has further increased the steady growth of orders and projects, and revenue projects in the commercialization stage have steadily increased. By the end of 2022, the company had listed 26 projects, 61 in phase III clinical projects, and 764 in phase I and phase II clinical trials, up 30.0%/24.5%/31.3%, respectively. We believe that the company's CDMO business will continue to grow rapidly as the company's project pipeline continues to expand and cooperation with major customers continues to advance.
The integration of specialty APIs and formulations is progressing steadily. In 2022, the company's API business achieved revenue of 1,637 billion yuan (+24.9% YOY), and Jiangsu Ricoh resumed production in June 2020. With the continuous increase in capacity utilization, the company's API business was able to maintain steady growth. The company actively promoted the development of integrated pharmaceutical business. By the end of 2022, the company had 18 generic drug formulation projects in different stages of development. Of these, 5 projects had submitted NMPA listing applications. Currently, they are in different stages of CDE review and approval.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We kept the company's net profit of 1,244 billion yuan unchanged in 2023, introducing net profit of 1,440 million yuan in 2024. The current stock price corresponds to the 2023/2024 P/E 23/20 times. We maintained that the company outperformed industry ratings. Considering the overall decline in the valuation of the CDMO industry, we lowered the company's target price by 19.7% to 40.50 yuan (based on the SOTP model). The corresponding P/E for 2023/2024 was 29/25 times. Compared with the current stock price, there is still room for 26.3% upward.
risks
The largest customer accounts for too much revenue; commercial orders fluctuate greatly; prices of upstream raw materials are rising; new business expansion falls short of expectations.