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科拓生物(300858):转型期业绩受复配拖累 益生菌保持高增并逐渐主导公司成长

Koto Biotech (300858): Performance during the transition period was dragged down by compounding, probiotics maintained high growth and gradually dominated the company's growth

方正證券 ·  Apr 20, 2023 10:24  · Researches

Incidents: The company achieved operating income of 369 million yuan in 2022, +1.25% year on year; net profit of returned mother was 110 million yuan, +0.32% year on year; net profit of non-return mother was 98 million yuan, +18.08% year on year.

4Q22 achieved operating income of 105 million yuan, +3.02% year on year; net profit of the mother was 23 million yuan, -5.97% year on year; after deducting net profit of the non-return mother was 102 million yuan, +115.40% year on year.

1Q23 achieved operating income of 72 million yuan, -16.17% year on year; net profit of 20 million yuan, -14.48% year on year; net profit of non-return mother was 18 million yuan, -9.37% year on year.

The probiotic business continued to soar and began to lead the company's growth, and the compounding business was being dragged down.

By business, in 2022, the company's compound food additives/edible probiotic products/animal and plant microecological formulas/other achieved revenue of 1.73/1.40/0.42/015 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -27.70%/+87.09%/-6.70%/+132.62%. Among them, “other” projects were mainly strain intellectual property transfer business. Probiotic production and sales and strain intellectual property revenue totaled 155 million yuan, an increase of about 91% over the previous year, and the revenue share increased by 20pct to 42%. The rapid growth of the probiotic business is mainly due to the steady implementation of major customers. Furthermore, the popularization of the probiotic concept and consumer education brought about by the incident also accelerated the development of the industry. 1Q23, the probiotic business maintained its growth momentum, and the company expanded production at the Jinhua factory to fully guarantee the order needs of major customers. The compounding business was affected by weak downstream demand for room-temperature yogurt. Sales volume and ton prices both declined, and the rise in the cost of modified starch as a raw material also affected the company's overall performance. The first quarter was the starting point of consumption recovery. The first quarter was the starting point of consumption recovery. There is wait-and-see sentiment downstream. With the recovery and verification of consumption power, confidence is expected to increase, and the annual decline may be narrower than the first quarter.

The company's profitability remained steady, and the net interest rate of the probiotic factory increased as the scale effect became apparent. The company's gross profit margin in 2022 was 51.98%, +1.66pct over the previous year; the sales/management/finance/R&D expenses ratio was 7.38%/8.03%/-0.86%/5.98%, respectively, +0.52pct/-2.47pct/+0.85pct/-1.46pct respectively. The increase in sales expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in sales staff and wage growth, and the decline in the management expense ratio mainly due to the decline in equity incentive expenses charged in the current period and the decline in employee education expenses and administrative operating expenses. Achieved a net interest rate of 29.77%, -0.27pct over the same period last year. In 2022, the Huayinhe plant (which produces edible probiotic products) achieved a net interest rate of 40.89%, an increase of 10.66 pct over the previous year, mainly due to increased capacity utilization, which showed scale effects; the capacity utilization rate in 1Q23 was at a high level, and net interest rates are also expected to increase year-on-year.

Profit forecasting and investment ratings: Considering the drag of the composite business, the company's 23-24 performance forecast was lowered, and the 25-year performance forecast was added. It is estimated that in 2023-25, the company can achieve net profit of 1.60/2.20/284 million yuan (the report “Constant increase and expansion of production opens up room for development, the probiotic business may continue to rise in the medium to long term” published on November 3, 2022, which predicts that the net profit of Fumo in 23 and 24 will be 174/221 million yuan), up 46%/37%/29% respectively over the previous year. The current market value corresponds to PE in 23-25, respectively.

We believe that probiotics are a booming track. The company's major customer development has been steadily implemented, and star strains and transfer models have been recognized downstream. The current business transformation period compounding has dragged down the company's overall performance due to the impact of poor demand for large downstream products, but as the share of probiotics revenue increases, the company's growth will continue to show and maintain the “highly recommended” rating.

Risk warning: major customers fall short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, capacity construction falls short of expectations, introduction of industry regulations falls short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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