Shenma shares will raise 3 billion yuan of convertible bonds in this period, which will be used for nylon chemical industry supporting hydrogen and ammonia projects, annual production of 240000 tons of bisphenol A project (phase II), replenishment of liquidity and repayment of bank loans, after deducting issuance costs. The listing date is April 20.
Nylon 66 tap. The company is a chemical enterprise under Henan State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and has a dual industrial chain of nylon 66 and polycarbonate (PC). At present, the products of nylon 66 industrial chain include intermediate adiponitrile and downstream cord fabric, industrial silk, slicing, etc. Nylon 66 has a production capacity of 210000 tons, a global market share of about 7%, and a domestic leader. PC industrial chain includes intermediate bisphenol An and PC products, of which nylon chemical products account for more than 70%, while PC industrial chain products account for relatively low income. The direct raw materials of nylon 66 are mainly adipic nitrile, which is highly dependent on imports, and the industrial chain is essentially petrochemical. The company mainly earns the price difference between adipic nitrile / adipic acid and nylon 66. Gross profit margin fluctuates greatly due to the influence of oil price and downstream prosperity. 21 years is the year of supply restriction and demand boom, the company's profit margin is also the highest in history, and the company's profit also dropped sharply after the decline in 22 years. The overall profitability fluctuates greatly.
Deepen the upstream layout of nylon 66 and PC dual industrial chain. For a long time, the extremely low domestic production rate and high price of adiponitrile have been the main factors that limit the opening of the downstream demand space of nylon 66, and the domestic production capacity of nylon 66 has also been affected by this. In the future, the improvement of the localization rate of adiponitrile is the key to improve the stability of domestic demand and raw material supply. Since 2019, domestic Huafeng Group, China Chemical and other companies have been building and putting into operation the production capacity of adipic nitrile. The company is also carrying out active layout. The subsidiary Shenma Adi'an began to build a 50,000-ton adiponitrile project at the end of the 20th and is expected to be put into production by the end of the 23rd. After it is put into production, it is expected to achieve domestic substitution and improve the self-supplying capacity of raw materials. In addition, the company is building hydrogen ammonia project to ensure the supply of raw materials for nylon chemical industry. In the PC industrial chain, the company has been actively promoting the "annual output of 100000 tons of polycarbonate phase I project", and supporting the construction of "130000 tons of bisphenol A phase I project", the convertible bond project plus 200000 tons of bisphenol A capacity construction, to further meet the company's raw material supply of 30-400000 tons of PC products. After the two major projects are put into production, the planning of the upper reaches of the company's nylon 66 and PC industrial chains will be further deepened, and the cost control capability will be further improved, which is expected to bring performance flexibility for the company. According to the consensus forecast of Wind, the expected return net profit of the company in 23 / 24 is 452 million / 536 million respectively, and the corresponding PE is 18.09X/15.52X respectively.
The valuation is on the low side since the listing, the flexibility of stock price and the attention of institutions are OK. From the valuation point of view, the company's latest closing price corresponds to PB of 1.09X, which is in the medium-low position since listing. Comparable company Huafeng Chemical / Hailide's current PB is 1.58X/1.92X, and the company is in a medium-low position. The company's current A-share market capitalization of 8.2 billion yuan, the stock price flexibility is OK, 22 annual report of the position will be more than 20, institutional attention is OK.
Parity and debt protection are better. The interest rate clause of Shenma convertible bond is lower than the average, and the downrevision clause in the additional clause (15hammer 30jue 80%) is more strict. Based on the closing price of the corresponding company on April 18, the parity of convertible bonds is 94.03 yuan, and the parity protection is OK. Under the assumption of this article, the value of pure bonds is 91.89 yuan and YTM is 1.84%, and the debt bottom is well protected.
The listing price is expected to be between 115 and 120 yuan. Shenma convertible bond rating AAA, the latest parity 94.03yuan, the convertible bond market can refer to the underlying Sanfang (the latest closing price of 119.37 yuan, conversion premium rate of 27.84%), Shenma convertible bond is expected to be listed on the first day of the conversion premium rate between 25-30%, the listing price is between 115,0120 yuan, if the price is less than 115, you can participate appropriately.
Risk hint: capacity construction is not up to expectations; raw material prices have risen sharply