1Q23's strong performance, profit is expected to pick up quickly and make a breakthrough; maintain "buy"
The revenue of Spring and Autumn Airlines in 2022 was 8.369 billion, down 22.9%, and the net loss was 3.036 billion, which was weaker than the forecast net loss of 2.35 billion-2.6 billion, mainly because the 4Q22 income tax was included in 205 million, and the net profit in 2021 was 39 million. 1Q23's revenue was 3.863 billion, up 119.0% from a month earlier, and its net profit was 356 million, which was better than our previous forecast of 200 million of net profit and a significant improvement from 4Q22's net loss of 1.299 billion. China's civil aviation is expected to fully recover in 2023, and the company's profit level may pick up rapidly under the low-cost model. We predict that the return net profit in 23-25 years will be 22.74x28.44pm 4.054 billion (the previous value is 739mm21400 million). In the medium and long term, with China's low-cost aviation penetration, the company is still growing.
With reference to the valuation multiple of the high point of the company's prosperity, the value of 4.8x 2023PB remains unchanged, the 2023E BPS is 16.32yuan, and the target price is 78.35yuan. Maintain "buy".
There was a big loss in 2022, but the most difficult period has been passed.
The 22-year civil aviation operation was difficult, which also had a serious impact on the company. The overall ASK dropped by 26.8%, only 69% of that in 2019; the overall RPK dropped by 34.1%, 57% of 2019; the occupancy rate was 74.7%, and the 8.2pct was reduced. Although revenue per passenger kilometer increased by 16.8%, revenue still fell by 22.9%, 57% of that in 2019. On the cost side, due to the rise in oil prices and the decline in aircraft utilization, unit ATK costs increased by 40.2%, operating costs increased by 11.59 billion, or 2.3%, and the gross loss increased by 2.749 billion to 3.221 billion compared with the same period last year. In addition, the exchange loss increased by 195 million compared with the same period last year, other income decreased by 407 million year-on-year, and the final homing net loss was 3.036 billion, down 3.075 billion from the 22-year net profit of 39 million.
1Q23 makes a rapid turnaround, showing the resilience of low-cost aviation profitability
1Q23 China's civil aviation operating environment has significantly improved, and the company has made full use of its low-cost advantages and actively deployed transport capacity. The overall ASK/RPK increased by 71.6% and 100.2% compared with the previous month, and returned to 102% of 1Q19's. The occupancy rate was 86.9%, and the month-on-month increase was 12.4pct. In addition, we estimate that revenue per passenger kilometer has increased by about 10% month-on-month, making 1Q23 revenue increase by 119.0% month-on-month. At the same time, due to the increase in aircraft utilization, the unit ATK cost decreased by 31% month-on-month, the operating cost increased by 3.376 billion, the month-on-month increase of 18.4%, and the gross profit of 1Q23 recorded a gross profit of 487 million, and 4Q22 recorded a gross loss of 1.087 billion. In addition, because 4Q22 company included 205 million income tax, the final 1Q23 profit increased by 1.654 billion to 356 million.
Adjust the target price to 78.35 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating
We raised the net profit of 23E-25E homing to 22.74x28.44xpx (previous value: 739ct 214,000,000). We believe that in the process of improving the business environment, the supply and demand structure will improve, the industry boom will continue to improve, and the low-cost advantage may promote the company's profits to pick up quickly. With reference to the valuation multiple of the high point of the company's prosperity (the average value in 2016 is 4.8x PB), the target price is adjusted to RMB78.35RMB (the previous value is RMB65.45RMB) with 4.8x 2023PB unchanged (RMB16.32m for 2023E BPS). Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: oil prices have risen sharply, the renminbi has depreciated sharply, high-speed rail has accelerated, economic growth has slowed, demand has recovered less than expected, subsidies have fallen more than expected, and safety accidents have occurred.