焦煤售价提升明显，建材业务贡献亮点。煤炭业务方面，2022 年公司煤炭产量 2636.63万吨，同比提升1.94%；价格方面，受益于俄乌冲突加剧全球能源危机、海外煤炭价格大幅上涨、国内焦煤供給增量有限及澳煤进口继续缺席等因素影响，2022年煤炭价格整体表现强势：公司2022年商品煤不含税综合售价为1000元/吨，较2021年提升超过140元/吨；其中洗精煤不含税综合售价为1820元/吨，同比提升超过300元/吨。成本方面，公司2022年吨煤销售成本约640元/吨，同比约提升超过50元/吨。整体来看，公司煤炭业务毛利率达到37%，同比提升约6个百分点。建材业务方面，受益于冀中新材新建生产线全面投产，2022年玻纤产量25.8万吨，同比提升70.86%，建材业务毛利率也较去年提升7.39个百分点至27.26%，化工业务方面，由于原料价格较高、成本负担加重，公司2022年化工业务毛利率同比下滑5.65个百分点至7.58%。综上所述，公司2022年全年业绩44.58亿元，同比增长62.73%。Description of the event
The company released its 2022 annual report: the company achieved operating income of 36.036 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 14.68% over the previous year; the net profit returned to the mother was 4.458 billion yuan, an increase of 62.73% over the previous year. The company's proposed dividend ratio in 2022 is about 79%.
Incident comments
The price of coking coal has increased significantly, and the building materials business has contributed highlights. In terms of coal business, the company produced 263663 million tons of coal in 2022, an increase of 1.94% over the previous year; in terms of price, benefiting from factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict worsening the global energy crisis, the sharp rise in overseas coal prices, the limited increase in domestic coking coal supply, and the continued absence of Australian coal imports, the overall coal price performance in 2022 was 1,000 yuan/ton without tax, an increase of more than 140 yuan/ton over 2021; among them, the comprehensive price of refined coal without tax was 1,820 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 300 yuan/ton over 2021. In terms of cost, the company's coal sales cost in 2022 was about 640 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 50 yuan/ton over the previous year. Overall, the gross margin of the company's coal business reached 37%, an increase of about 6 percentage points over the previous year. In terms of the building materials business, benefiting from the full commissioning of a new production line for Hebei New Materials, glass fiber production in 2022 was 258,000 tons, an increase of 70.86% over the previous year. The gross margin of the building materials business also increased 7.39 percentage points to 27.26% over last year. In the chemical business, due to higher raw material prices and increased cost burdens, the gross margin of the company's chemical business fell 5.65 percentage points year-on-year to 7.58% in 2022. In summary, the company's performance for the full year of 2022 was 4.458 billion yuan, an increase of 62.73% over the previous year.
The company's performance is expected to reach a new high in 2023. Since 2023, although the price of coking coal in the market has declined somewhat since April due to the liberalization of Australian coal import restrictions, falling overseas coal prices, increased coal imports from Mongolia, and weak demand, the current coking coal price center is still far above the level of the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. In addition, benefiting from the sale of all shares held by the company in Hebei Jinniu Chemical Co., Ltd., increased non-recurring profit and loss by about 1.5 billion yuan. The company's performance in 2023 increased significantly, which may help the company's performance reach a new high in 2023.
The dividend ratio reached 79%, and the undervalued value of high dividends was highlighted. The company announced its 2022 dividend plan. It plans to implement a dividend plan of 10 shares of 10 yuan, with a total dividend of 3,534 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 79% and a corresponding dividend rate (as of April 26) of more than 13%. Considering the overall stability of the company's capital expenditure in recent years and the pressure on shareholders to repay their debts due to central increases in coal prices, the company's dividends are expected to remain high; and in the <2023-2025 Shareholder Return Plan issued by the company, “the profit distributed in cash every year in the future will not be less than 35% of the distributable profit achieved that year” also provided a certain amount of guaranteed income. At the valuation level, the valuation safety cushion corresponding to the company's current stock price is obvious, and the undervalued value of high dividends is prominent.
From a growth perspective, the company still has room for quantitative growth. According to the listed company, 600,000 tons of Xijing of the Xingtai mine under construction are expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023. The type of coal is 1/3 coke. At that time, production is expected to increase by 100,000 to 300,000 tons. Furthermore, the 1.5 million ton nuclear capacity increase in the Inner Mongolia mining area in '22 may also increase the company's coal production in 23 to a certain extent. At the group level, there are still unlisted coal mines with a production capacity of more than 20 million tons and 10.1 million tons under construction. Looking to the future, the group's mines may become the company's reserve assets or the driving force for the company's performance to continue to rise.
Investment advice and valuation: The company's EPS for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 1.62 yuan, 1.47 yuan and 1.52 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 4.57 times, 5.03 times, and 4.86 times respectively, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. The slowdown in macroeconomic growth affects coal demand;
2. The release of new coal production capacity in the industry has a large impact on coal prices.
