Event: the company released the 2022 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2023, and the company realized operating income of 470 million yuan in 2022, an increase of 19.22% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 62 million yuan, down 18.15% from the same period last year. The company realized operating income of 85 million yuan in the first quarter of 2023, down 17.59% from the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 7 million yuan, down 55.72% from the same period last year.
2023Q1 auto revenue is expected to fall 18%, dragging down the military business. In 2022, the company's overall gross profit margin was 30.22%, down 4.34 percentage points from the same period last year, of which Q4 gross profit margin was 31.92%, an increase of 1.33% over the same period last year and 3.72% from the previous year. From the perspective of business split, the automobile business recorded a gross profit margin of 30.67% in 2022, down 5.66 percentage points from the same period last year, mainly due to the rise in raw materials and the decline in capacity utilization under the influence of the epidemic. During the period, the company's new energy fastener business recorded sales revenue of 42.113 million yuan. We expect that metal + plastic products will be the industry trend of new energy vehicles in the future. It is expected that the company's new energy business will account for 30% in the future. The gross profit margin of the company's new energy business is expected to be higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles (3~5pct). It should be pointed out that the company completed the official layout of the military industry plate during the period, and its military subsidiary Chengdu Crescent achieved revenue of 30.02 million yuan and net profit of 3.52 million yuan (combined caliber May and December). In addition, the company calculated that excluding impairment, performance compensation and the impact of military business, the profit of automobile-related business was about 55 million yuan.
The capacity of the new factory will be expanded, and the automobile plus military industry will boost the business coordination. In terms of capacity distribution, the company's Wuxi plant will enter the capacity climbing cycle in 2023, the company will focus on the introduction of high value-added products and achieve technological cost reduction with the help of the automation equipment of the new plant; the company's Zhenjiang plant will be completed in 2023Q3 and put into production in 2024, which will further expand the company's capacity. In terms of the layout of the new business, the company pays attention to strengthening cooperation with the mainframe factory and has made a number of important breakthroughs in the new energy vehicle project. including new energy exchange components project, new energy chassis and body connection fastener project, electronic control system fastener project and so on. In addition, the company will also achieve breakthroughs in the development of new NIO Inc. automobile projects, Guangzhou Automobile Power Exchange Project, Bosch hydrogen Battery Project and Power system. We believe that the company has a strong R & D and manufacturing capacity in the fastener track, and the coordination of automobile + military industry business will achieve steady growth.
Technological research and development has promoted the upgrading of capacity structure, and the transformation of new energy has been accelerated. The company continues to introduce high-end imported testing equipment, R & D equipment, etc., to meet the changes in market demand, including high and low temperature alternating hot and humid test chamber, cyclic corrosion test chamber, X-ray fluorescence tester, horizontal multi-function thread analysis system, Zeiss metallographic microscope, JOMESA cleaning test system, Tonas CN lathe, etc. It is used to study metal materials, cold working technology, heat treatment, surface treatment and so on in the field of new energy vehicle technology.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the 2023-2025 net profit of the company will be 0.88 Placement 1.47 million yuan, EPS 0.84 Plus 1.28 Plus 1.41 respectively, and P / E ratio 26.52 Plus 17.47 Sterling 15.82 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: market competition intensifies and the pace of new business development is not as fast as expected.