2022 年受中国市场影响，全球风电新增装机出现一定程度规模萎缩，根据彭博新能源财经数据，全球风电新增装机85.7GW，同比-14%，其中海陆风新增装机分别同比-7%、46%；根据CWEA，中国风电新增吊装49.8GW，同比-11%，其中海陆风新增吊装分别-64%、+7.8%。产业链上游零部件，尤其是海风大尺寸部件出货同比下滑相对显著，但公司凭借优势产能、优质全球龙头客户资源，实现了出口端的亮眼增长，2022 年实现出口收入6.14 亿，同比+133.8%，创历史新高。从恒润主营分业务角度看：Event: The company released its 2022 results, achieving revenue of 1,945 million yuan, -15.20% year on year, and net profit of 95 million yuan for the mother, and -78.55% year on year. In Q4 alone, revenue was 588 million yuan, +4.39% year on year, and net profit of the mother was 38 million yuan, -63.57% year on year.
Core view: The performance is in line with previous forecast expectations, and 2023 is expected to usher in an inflection point in profit margins. In 2022, against the backdrop of shrinking industry demand and high raw material costs, the company's performance was clearly under pressure; however, after entering the second half of the year, the company's flange deliveries increased month-on-month, and new independent propeller bearing products were successfully put into operation, contributing to revenue growth. 22Q3-Q4 achieved revenue of 545 million and 588 million respectively, +24% and 8% over the previous month. Looking ahead to 2023, the cost pressure on raw materials will slow down, demand for large-size flanges in Haiwind will increase, and the pattern is clear. It is expected that the volume and price of products will be equal. Wind power variable propeller bearings will be accompanied by increased production capacity and delivery, and large-scale effects are expected to be seen. We expect that after the industry enters the peak installation season in the second half of 2023, the company is expected to reach an inflection point in profit margins. The current valuation level is low, and there is a margin of investment safety.
The company's export performance in 2022 was impressive, and new wind power bearing products contributed to revenue growth:
Influenced by the Chinese market in 2022, the scale of new wind power installations worldwide shrank to a certain extent. According to Bloomberg New Energy's financial data, global wind power added 85.7 GW, or -14% over the same period last year. Among them, the new installed capacity of sea, land, and wind was -7% and 46%, respectively. According to CWEA, China's wind power added 49.8 GW of hoisting, -11% compared to the same period last year. Shipments of parts upstream in the industrial chain, especially Haifeng large-size parts, declined significantly year on year, but with superior production capacity and high-quality global leading customer resources, the company achieved impressive growth on the export side, achieving export revenue of 614 million yuan in 2022, +133.8% over the same period last year, a record high. From the perspective of Hengrun's main business branch:
① Wind power tower flange: Achieved revenue of 918 million yuan, -24.0% year on year, accounting for about 47.2% of total revenue, gross profit margin 10.25%, year-on-year to -22.8 pct. The gross margin decline was mainly due to prudent wind farm starts, the company's orders for wind power tower flange products decreased, and prices fell; ② Wind power bearings: achieved revenue of 112 million, accounting for about 5.8%, gross profit margin 2.7%. The subsidiary Hengrun Transmission achieved mass production and sales, but production was still in a period of energy climbing. Weak, so not profitable; ③ Other industries Making/forged forging products: The machinery industry, metal pressure vessels, and petrochemicals achieved revenue of 1.57, 0.7, and 22 million yuan respectively, +42%, +0.4%, and -78%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
Expenses are well controlled, and profits are improving marginal: the company's overall gross profit margin in 2022 was 10.93%, year-on-year -13.4pct, net interest rate 4.87%, and -14.3pct year-on-year. Single Q4 gross profit margin was 13.24%, +5.9pct month-on-month, net profit margin 6.49%, +3.9pct month-on-month. Looking at the cost side, the company's expense ratio in 2022 was 5.98%, compared to -3pct. Among them, the sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses rates were -0.1, -0.2, -0.9, and -2.0pct respectively. The company's expense management and control effects were evident. The core point of the further improvement in the company's profit level in 2023 is: ① demand for large size Sea Wind flanges is increasing, and prices are expected to rise; ② large-scale effects of new bearing products are showing. We believe that the company is expected to reach an upward inflection point in profit margins in 2023, but it is still necessary to consider the costs and additional expenses on the cost side of the construction and commissioning of the main bearing project and the gearbox precision components project, which may reduce the flexibility of the company's profit recovery to a certain extent.
The company's industrial layout is clear, and there is plenty of room for medium- to long-term growth: with deep forging and machining production experience, the company ① horizontally expands large-size sea-wind flanges: Hengrun Ring Forging achieves mass production of 10MW and above wind turbine tower flanges in the existing plant, and upgrades production capacity and technology to the 12MW level; ② Longitudinally extended high-value-added bearings, gearbox precision components: Hengrun Transmission's new product, 6MW three-row independent propeller bearings, is in the bench certification stage, Hengrun forging “.” The “Wheel Forgings and Deep Processing Project” has entered the construction period.
Investment advice: In 2023, we expect wind power flanges to show a recovery trend thanks to product structure optimization and declining raw material costs; new bearing products are expected to contribute to increased profits, but considering that their large-scale effects need to be confirmed after large-scale shipments, at the same time, Hengrun Huan Forging and Hengrun Transmission fund-raising projects are still in the construction period. Based on prudential principles, we expect the company's operating income from 2023-2025 to be 38.0/57/70.1 billion yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rate is 95.6%/41.2%/30.5%, respectively. 4.1/66/ 9.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 331.1%/62.7%/43.3%, respectively, and corresponding PE 23/14/10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: New installations in the industry fell short of expectations; shipments of large flanges fell short of expectations; new product shipments fell short of expectations; investment in fund-raising projects led to high expenses; risk of rising raw material costs.
