Summary of the report:
The supply pattern of the industry has improved. The slowdown of real estate development, the credit risk crisis of real estate customers, the rising cost of raw materials, the superposition of many factors, and the acceleration of passive clearing of the industry. The new waterproofing regulations will be implemented on April 1, 2023, and the expansion of the industry will be gradually realized. After calculation, we believe that the new waterproofing regulations are expected to create more than 50% room for the waterproofing market. In terms of the progress of capacity expansion, the industry expansion has been gradually realized this year, and 2024 may officially enter the stage of accelerated capacity expansion.
Distributed photovoltaic provides new opportunities. With the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic, polymer products have relative advantages. In 2022, China's industrial and commercial photovoltaic installed capacity reached 25.86GW, an increase of 236.7% over the same period last year, setting an annual record. A number of policies have contributed to the rapid development of distributed photovoltaic installations in China. With the continuous promotion of "double carbon", the frequent introduction of distributed photovoltaic policy will further accelerate the development of industrial and commercial photovoltaic. Compared with traditional asphalt-based waterproof materials, polymer waterproof materials are more suitable for industrial and commercial photovoltaic roof waterproofing needs.
Aim at the subdivided track and pay attention to the development of polymer waterproofing. The company ploughs the polymer field and leads the fine track. The company's polymer industrial park has a design capacity of 100 million square meters, and it is one of the few companies in the industry to produce G-type, GL-type TPO and PVC waterproof materials at the same time. There are many company bases in production capacity, and the synergy effect of production and delivery is strong. The company took the lead in breaking through the technical problems in the production and application of polymer self-adhesive film in China, realized the mass production of MBP polymer adhesive, sheet and final products, and achieved the combined advantages of product production technology and construction application system in this market segment.
Launch "converged photovoltaic roof system" to solve photovoltaic waterproof pain points. The company launched the "converged Photovoltaic Roof system", which can provide at least 25 years of service life and effectively solve the industry pain points that the service life of structural layers such as waterproof on traditional photovoltaic roofs does not match the life cycle of photovoltaic modules. The high reflectivity of the company's polymer waterproof materials can significantly improve the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation.
Distributed photovoltaic industry chain system service provider transformation to meet the photovoltaic waterproof one-stop demand. In the future, the company's strategic goal will be transformed into a leading industrial and commercial roofing enterprise, a distributed photovoltaic industry chain system service provider, a new infrastructure and urban renewal product system service provider, and to upgrade the product concept through the strategy of "low carbon + assembly". Open the beginning of systematic construction.
Give the company an "overweight" rating. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.902 million yuan, and its net profit will be 3.960 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of-241.8 percent and 69.28 percent, respectively. The EPS is-0.26, 0.60, 1.01 yuan.
Risk tips: raw material prices have risen sharply, performance forecasts and valuations have fallen short of expectations.