1、婴儿卫生用品贡献主要增长，自主品牌湿巾等其他产品增速亮眼。2022年公司收入同比增长13.8%，分产品看：①婴儿卫生用品收入20.32 亿元，同比+15.5%，公司加大市场开拓力度，叠加产能提升，婴儿卫生用品业务在行业需求承压的背景下实现较快增长；②成人卫生用品收入6.21 亿元，同比+6.1%，其中我们预计女性卫生用品收入稳健增长，成人失禁用品受原材料价格上涨等影响，销售有所承压；③其他产品收入0.87 亿元，同比+44.5%，主要系公司生产的复合芯体和湿巾产品等销售收入增加。Performance review
The 2022 results were in line with our expectations. The 1Q23 performance slightly exceeded our expectations. Haoyue Nursing announced 2022 results: revenue of 2.80 billion yuan, +13.8% year on year; net profit of the mother was 423 million yuan, +16.6% year on year, in line with our expectations. On a quarterly basis, 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q22 revenue was -2.8%/+37.3%/+26.1%/+0.2%, and net profit to the mother was -37.8%/+1.8%/+186.1%/+19.1% year over year. At the same time, the company announced 1Q23 results: revenue of 632 million yuan, +22.8% year on year; net profit of the mother was 79 million yuan, +44.6% year on year, slightly exceeding our expectations. We expect profit margins to be boosted mainly by the volume of orders placed by new and old customers, loose raw material prices, and the streamlining of expenses.
Development trends
1. Baby hygiene products contributed mainly to growth, and other products such as own-brand wipes grew at an impressive rate. In 2022, the company's revenue increased 13.8% year-on-year. By product: ① Baby hygiene products revenue was 2,032 billion yuan, +15.5% year on year. The company increased its market development efforts, combined with the increase in production capacity, and the baby hygiene products business achieved rapid growth against the backdrop of pressure from industry demand; ② Revenue of adult hygiene products was 621 million yuan, +6.1% year on year. Among them, we expect revenue from women's hygiene products to grow steadily. Adult incontinence products were affected by rising raw material prices, etc., and sales were under pressure; ③ Revenue from other products was 807 million yuan, +44.5% year on year, mainly Sales revenue of composite cores and wet wipes products produced by the company increased.
2. The gross margin was pressured by the increase in raw material prices, and the net interest rate rose slightly to 15%. The consolidated gross margin in 2022 was -3.2ppt to 23.2% year on year, mainly affected by the rise in the prices of raw materials such as polymers, rubber bars, and cartons. Among them, 4Q22 gross margin was 24.7%, and +5.5/+2.4ppt respectively over the previous year/month.
The expense rate in 2022 fell 0.7ppt to 7.7% year on year. Among them, the sales/management/R&D expense ratio was -0.2/+0.1/-0.1ppt to 3.5%/2.1%/3.6%, respectively, while the increase in interest income affected the financial expense ratio -0.5ppt year on year. At the same time, under the influence of asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses and the year-on-year decline in income tax rates, etc., the company's net interest rate in 2022 was 15.1%, +0.4ppt over the same period last year.
3. Excellent R&D and innovation capabilities enable medium- to long-term sustainable growth, and independent brands are worth looking forward to. In response to consumer needs and pain points, the company developed structurally innovative easy-to-wear and removable baby pull-on pants, which greatly improved the convenience of product replacement and broke through the limitations of the original product usage scenarios. We anticipate that they will replace the demand for some daily use napkins and baby diapers, and the products are expected to be promoted and applied to the market in the near future. At the same time, the company has optimized its own brand structure, focusing on brands such as “Hope Baby”, “Mamma Mia”, “Kangfurui”, and “Dafi”. The category extends from personal care products to family products, and uses channels such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin for marketing and promotion. The development of its own brand is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that the company's order growth exceeded expectations, we slightly increased our 2023 net profit by 3% to 550 million yuan, and introduced 2024 net profit of 690 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 12 times the 2023 price-earnings ratio and 10 times the 2024 price-earnings ratio. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and target price of 65 yuan, corresponding to 18 times the price-earnings ratio of 2023 and 15 times the price-earnings ratio of 2024, there is 50% room for improvement compared to the current stock price.
risks
The risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; the progress of new product launches falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies the risk.
