China Praise (8083.HK): Store SAAS performed well, Q4 companies reversed losses through adjusted EBITDA

中信建投證券 · Mar 27, 2023 00:00 · Researches

核心观点

2022 年公司实现营收14.97 亿元，同比下降4.65%。其中订阅解决方案实现收入8.90 亿元，同比降低8.58%，商家解决方案实现收入5.88 亿元，同比增长0.51%；2022 年公司实现GMV 1014亿，同比增长3.15%，其中来自非快手渠道的GMV同比增长19%。

22Q4 公司经调整EBITDA 和经营性现金流均实现转正，我们预计随着中国经济复苏，公司营收净利有望持续修复，我们预计公司22/23 年的营业收入分别为15.1/17.4 亿元，分别同比增长1%/15%。

简评

营业收入略有下降，Q4 经调整EBITDA 实现转正。2022 年公司实现营收14.97 亿元，同比下降4.65%，环比增长5%。订阅解决方案实现收入8.90 亿元，同比降低8.58%，存量付费商家数同比下降5.61%，存量商家SaaS 订阅业务ARPU 同比下降3.15%。

商家解决方案实现收入5.88 亿元，同比增长0.51%，其中take rate同比下降0.01pct 至0.58%。2022 年公司实现GMV 1014 亿，同比增长3.15%，商户平均GMV 同比增长9%。2022 年来自非快手渠道的GMV 同比增长19%，同上一年增速基本持平，快手渠道对业务的影响持续减弱。22Q4 公司经调整EBITDA 为715 万元，实现扭亏为盈。

门店业务表现亮眼，来自门店SaaS 的GMV 快速提升。2022年公司新增付费商家数为40443 个，同比下降15%，环比下降17.1%。2022 年存量付费商家数为83439 个，同比下降5.61%，环比下降6.4%，其中订阅电商SaaS 的商家占比63%，订阅门店SaaS（包含有赞零售、有赞连锁、有赞教育和旺小店）的商家占比37%。2022 年末公司用户流失率为51.36%，同环比略有提升，主要系疫情对实体经济的冲击影响。2022 年存量用户订阅方案的ARPU 同比下降3.15%至10700 元。来自门店SaaS 解决方案的GMV 同比快速增长，2022 年GMV 达到425 亿元，同比增长超过53%，占总交易额的42%。

盈利预测：我们预计中国有赞23/24 年的营业收入分别为15.1/17.4 亿元。分别同比增长1%/15%。

风险提示：中国宏观经济复苏不及预期的风险；2023 年度减亏不及预期风险；新增商户数低预期的风险，商户流失率超预期；ARPU 增长不及预期；平台GMV 增长低于预期；门店SaaS 业务拓展不及预期；行业中和微盟等企业竞争加剧；腾讯阿里外链开放影响微信生态私域电商发展；海外业务及出海业务整体增长不及预期；中国互联网政策监管的不确定性；中美关系发展的不确定性；中概股退市风险；人民币汇率超预期贬值；其他影响中概互联整体表现的海外风险因素。

Core views

In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 1,497 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.65% over the previous year. Among them, subscription solutions achieved revenue of 890 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.58%, and merchant solutions achieved revenue of 588 million yuan, an increase of 0.51% over the previous year; in 2022, the company achieved GMV of 101.4 billion, an increase of 3.15% over the previous year. Among them, GMV from non-Kuaishou channels increased 19% year on year.

The company's adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow were both corrected in 22Q4. We expect the company's net revenue and profit to continue to recover as China's economy recovers. We expect the company's revenue for 22/23 to be 15.1/1.74 billion yuan respectively, up 1%/15% year-on-year respectively.

Brief review

Operating income declined slightly, and adjusted EBITDA was corrected in Q4. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 1,497 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.65% over the previous year and an increase of 5% over the previous month. Subscription solutions achieved revenue of 890 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.58%, the number of stock paying merchants decreased 5.61% year-on-year, and ARPU, the SaaS subscription business of stock merchants, decreased 3.15% year over year.

The merchant solution achieved revenue of 588 million yuan, an increase of 0.51% over the previous year, with Take Rate falling 0.01 pct to 0.58% year over year. In 2022, the company achieved a GMV of 101.4 billion, an increase of 3.15% over the previous year, and the average GMV of merchants increased 9% year over year. GMV from non-Kuaishou channels increased 19% year over year in 2022, which was basically the same as the previous year's growth rate, and the impact of Kuaishou channels on business continued to wane. In 22Q4, the company adjusted its EBITDA to 7.15 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit.

The performance of the store business was impressive, and GMV from store SaaS increased rapidly. The number of new paying merchants added to the company in 2022 was 40,443, down 15% year on year and 17.1% month on month. The number of stock paying merchants in 2022 was 8,3439, down 5.61% year on year and 6.4% month on month. Among them, businesses subscribed to e-commerce SaaS accounted for 63%, and merchants subscribed to store SaaS (including Youzan Retail, Youzan Chain, Youzan Education, and WangXiaodian) accounted for 37%. At the end of 2022, the corporate user turnover rate was 51.36%, a slight increase over the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic on the real economy. ARPU for the 2022 stock user subscription plan fell 3.15% year over year to $10,700. GMV from store SaaS solutions grew rapidly year over year. GMV reached 42.5 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of more than 53% over the previous year, accounting for 42% of total transaction volume.

Profit forecast: We expect China Youzan's revenue for 23/24 to be 15.1/1.74 billion yuan, respectively. The year-on-year increase was 1%/15%, respectively.

Risk warning: The risk that China's macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; loss reduction in 2023 falls short of expectations; risk of a low number of new merchants and the risk that the turnover rate of merchants exceeds expectations; ARPU growth falls short of expectations; platform GMV growth falls short of expectations; store SaaS business expansion falls short of expectations; competition among enterprises such as Weimou intensifies in the industry; the opening of Tencent Alibaba's backlinks affects the development of private e-commerce in the WeChat ecosystem; the overall growth of overseas business and overseas business falls short of expectations; uncertainty about the development of China's Internet policy regulation; uncertainty about the development of China-US stock market; risk of China's Internet policy regulation; uncertainty about the development of Sino-US stock markets; risk of China-US stock market delisting RMB The exchange rate depreciated beyond expectations; other overseas risk factors affecting the overall performance of the China Security Network.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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中国有赞(8083.HK)：门店SAAS表现亮眼 Q4公司经调整EBITDA实现扭亏

China Praise (8083.HK): Store SAAS performed well, Q4 companies reversed losses through adjusted EBITDA

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