Zhangjiagang industry 22A profits are high, asset quality is basically stable, two small businesses need to be repaired.
Performance overview
2022A Zhangjiagang Bank's homing net profit is + 29.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of-1.1pc; revenue is + 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate is-2.5pc. Roe increased by 1.1pc to 12.2% compared with the same period last year. At the end of 2022, Zhangjiagang's failure rate was 0.89%, month-on-month ratio was-1bp; provision coverage rate was 521%, month-on-month ratio-20pc.
Profits remain high.
22A Zhangjiagang Bank's homing net profit is + 29.0% compared with the same period last year, and the profit growth rate ranks at the forefront of the listing line. 22A Zhangjiagang's operating income was + 4.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate of-2.5pc, mainly due to a slowdown in non-interest income growth, which fell by 14pc to-2% month-on-month in 2022. The fluctuation of non-interest income is mainly due to the fluctuation of interest rates in the bond market and the slowdown in the growth rate of other non-interest income and agency business income. Zhangjiagang Bank's other non-interest income growth rate was-4pc to 8% month-on-month in 2022, while agency business income growth slowed to-32% compared with 22H1.
Loan growth slows down
The growth rate of loans at the end of 22Q4 was-0.5pc to 15.2%, of which two small loans increased by 14.2% compared with the same period last year, which is slower than that of 22H1. 8pc is mainly affected by the epidemic, and the demand for small and micro businesses is weak.
Looking forward to 2023, the growth of small and micro loans is expected to repair, mainly based on: ① 2023 economy is expected to repair, leading to the improvement of small and micro demand; ② small and micro business organizational structure optimization, the establishment of small and micro finance headquarters, unified management of small and micro finance department and small enterprise department, give full play to scale effect, improve customer service capacity ③ put the expansion of additional households into its strategic focus. At the end of 2022, the total number of loan customers reached 380000, an increase of 120000 over the beginning of the year, an increase of 45% over the same period last year, and an increase of 7pc compared with 22H1.
The quality of assets is stable
There is still pressure on bad generation: according to the stock index, the final defect rate of 22Q4 is from-1bp to 0.89%, the attention rate is from-10bp to 1.50%, and the overdue rate is increased from 7bp to 1.22% compared with the end of 22H1. According to dynamic indicators, the real bad TTM generation rate has increased to 1.13% from the previous month, and the judgment is mainly affected by the epidemic, and there is still some pressure on the quality of small and micro assets. The provision is still at a high level, and the final provision coverage of 22Q4 is from-20pc to 521%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit of Zhangjiagang Bank from 2023 to 2025 will increase by 17.9% compared with the same period last year, corresponding to BPS6.76/7.54/8.43 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to the 2023-2025 PB valuation of 0.67, 0.60, 0.54 times. Maintain the target price of 5.89 yuan per share, corresponding to the 23-year PB 0.87 times, the current price space 30%.
Risk hint: macroeconomic stall, a sharp outbreak of bad.