Incident: On the evening of March 30, the company released its 2022 annual report.
The annual report performance fell 38.54% year on year. Net profit in 2022 fell 38.54% year on year. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 2,653 million yuan, up 7.13% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 316 million yuan, down 38.54% year on year. Looking at the revenue side, the year-on-year slowdown in revenue growth may be due to 1) wind power installations in 2022 falling short of expectations; 2) the company's spindle bearing shipments declined due to changes in the technology path of downstream customers. Looking at the profit side, the decline in the company's net profit may be due to 1) the decline in product prices: in order to protect market share, the prices of the yacht propeller and spindle bearings fell; 2) Cost increase: Shengjiu forging technology reform, the external procurement of some forgings led to cost increases; 3) Asset impairment losses: asset impairment loss in 2022: asset impairment in 2022 (asset impairment in 2021 was 0), of which contract asset impairment was about RMB 21.2069 million and Haozhi Machinery's goodwill loss was 374.392 million yuan.
Profitability is under pressure. The gross margin in 2022 fell 3.32 pct year on year, and the cost rate for the period increased by 2.87 pct year on year. The company's gross profit margin of sales in 2022 was 27.5%, down 3.32 pct from the previous year; the net profit margin on sales was 12.38%, down 8.41 pct year on year. The decline in profitability is mainly due to falling product prices and rising prices of raw material bearing steel.
The cost rate during 2022 was approximately 11.82%, an increase of 2.87 pct over the previous year. Among them, sales, management, finance, and R&D expenses rates were 0.62%, 2.44%, 3.89%, and 4.87%, respectively, up 0.32, 1.15, 0.82, and 0.58pct over the previous year. With the increase in downstream demand and the release of the company's production capacity, profitability is expected to enter a recovery channel.
High boom in the wind power industry+domestic substitution, combined with the release of the company's production capacity, the company's long-term performance can be expected 1) High boom in the wind power industry: ① In the short term, 2023 is a major year for wind power installation. According to the forecast of the Wind Energy Professional Committee, the new installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 70-80 GW in 2023, an increase of 40%-60% over the previous year. ② In the long run, the new installed capacity of wind power during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is expected to exceed expectations. It is estimated that the average annual installed capacity of wind power during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period will reach 64 GW, and that the CAGR installed in 2022-2025 will be about 20%. 2) Domestic replacement: As the core component of the fan, wind power bearings have the characteristics of high technical barriers, high added value, etc., and are the parts with the lowest localization rate. By 2020, the overall localization rate of the domestic wind power bearing market was about 16%. Among them, the localization rate of spindle bearings and gearbox bearings is low, at 33% and 0.6% respectively. As bidding prices for fans fall, domestic wind power bearing technology continues to break through, the domestic replacement process for spindle bearings accelerates, and domestic replacement of gearbox bearings is on the agenda. 3) Release of production capacity: With the completion of the technical reform of the subsidiary Shengjiu Forgings and the release of production capacity for self-aligning rollers, single-row conical spindle bearings, and large megawatt yaw variable paddle bearings, the company's performance in 2023 is expected to rise at an inflection point. In addition, convertible bonds were issued in 2022 to proactively lay out gearbox bearings, improve the product matrix, further enhance the company's core competitiveness, and the company's long-term performance can be expected.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Net profit for 2023-2025 is expected to be about 5.3, 8.2, and 990 million yuan respectively, up 68%, 54% and 21% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 29, 19, and 15 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
1) The release of production capacity falls short of expectations; 2) the risk of worsening the competitive pattern; 3) the risk of raw material prices.