Overview of events
In 2022, the company's income / return net profit / deduction non-return net profit was 2.208 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.49%, 30.01%, 47.30%, which was lower than expected. The lower non-net profit was mainly due to government subsidies of 54.66 million yuan. The income / return net profit / deduction of non-return net profit of 22Q4 company was 590,023,000,000 yuan respectively, down 11.14% and 71.01% respectively compared with the same period last year. It is proposed to pay 2.7 yuan for 10 shares to increase 2 shares.
The company announced that it intends to invest in a high-quality bobbin dyeing project with an annual output of 110000 tons, with a total investment of 700 million yuan and a construction period of 36 months.
Analysis and judgment:
The quantity increases and the price falls, and the new category is initially expanded. (1) the business income of the company's color yarn / trade yarn / processing fee in 22 years is 1.972 million yuan, an increase of 1.03%, 0.69%, 19.38%, respectively. The growth of color yarn sales is not high. Our analysis is mainly due to the downstream demand affected by the epidemic in 22 years. The income of processing fees increased by 19%. We analyzed that benefiting from the expansion of new categories, the company put forward the goal of "undertaking the transfer of Jiangsu bobbin industry" for the first time. Two new product technical teams have been introduced and a new sales team has been set up, and we expect the new category to start in 23. (2) according to the split of volume and price, the sales of color yarn increased by 3.86% to 67300 tons compared with the same period last year, and the unit price decreased by 2.73% to 29300 yuan compared with the same period last year.
The gross profit margin fell sharply, benefiting from the increase in government subsidies, and the net profit margin fell by less than the gross margin. The gross profit margin of the 22-year color yarn / trade yarn / processing business was 11.98%, 4.14%, 17.63%, respectively, down 6.74/3.52/17.37PCT from the same period last year. According to our analysis, under the background of the decline in cotton prices, the company's non-net profit per ton deducted dropped to 1714 yuan. (1) the gross profit margin / net profit rate of 22Q4 is 7.59% 3.89%, which is lower than that of the same period last year (9.96/6.71PCT). Our analysis is mainly due to the decline in price and the existence of high-price inventory of cotton yarn. (2) in 22 years, the company's net interest rate / deduction of non-net interest rate was 7.38% / 5.39%, which was lower than the same period last year (3.33/4.95PCT). Our analysis is mainly due to income tax / income reduction 0.79PCT and government subsidy contribution of 55.88 million.
High-priced cotton yarn is basically digested. At the end of 22, the inventory was 352 million yuan, a decrease of 66 million yuan over the same period last year and 100 million yuan from the previous year, of which the inventory of raw materials / finished goods was 152 million yuan / 171 million yuan respectively. Inventory turnover days were 71.14 days, 1.08 days lower than the same period last year, and 12.64 days lower than the previous year. The company's accounts receivable were 22 million yuan, down 15.38% from the same period last year, 29.03% from the previous month. The average turnover days of accounts receivable was 3.97 days, an increase of 0.35 days from the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.8 days from the previous year.
Investment suggestion
According to our analysis, (1) in the short term, the production capacity in 23 years has expanded rapidly, the new category has expanded smoothly, and the net profit per ton can be improved after the superimposed cotton price has stabilized; the company plans to achieve an annual output of 112000 tons of barrel dyeing and 3000 tons of mercerized cotton in 23 years. We expect hosiery yarn / new categories to reach 85 million tons respectively this year. (2) in the medium term, the market of the new category is larger than that of sock yarn, and we expect the company to continue to seize the market share by virtue of its cost advantage. it is expected that the new category in the medium term is expected to reach more than 100000 tons; (3) the company plans to invest 110000 tons of high-quality bobbin yarn is expected to provide long-term capacity guarantee. The 24-year income is estimated to be 3.360 million yuan, the new 25-year income is 5.592 billion yuan, the 24-year return net profit of 23ax is 269,354 million yuan, and the new 25-year return net profit is 428 million yuan, corresponding to the annual EPS 2.15pm 2.83x3.43 yuan on 23-24-25, and the closing price on March 13, 2023, which corresponds to PE of 10x8x7X, respectively.
Risk hint
The risk of raw material price fluctuation; the risk that the production schedule is not up to expectation; systemic risk.