公司业绩符合预期，维持公司“增持”评级。2022 年公司实现营业收入4304 亿元，下降17.7%；实现归属普通股东净利润-61 亿元，上市以来首次出现亏损。由于汇兑损益和计提减值，以及结算的放缓，公司在2022 年业绩承压。我们调整公司2023 年业绩扭亏为盈（原-13.4%），2024 年业绩增速为66.2%（-36.4%），预计2025 年业绩增速为64.6%。我们下调公司2023~2024 年EPS 为0.03、0.06 元（原为0.13、0.09 元），预计2025 年EPS 为0.10 元。行业进入筑底回升阶段，维持公司“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company lost its performance in 2022 for the first time. Dragged down by the external environment and land storage structure, the company's profit margin continued to decline. The company continues to be in the downsizing phase. Some progress has been made in optimizing interest-bearing debt and land storage, and the company will restart land investment.
Summary:
The company's performance was in line with expectations, maintaining the company's “increase in holdings” rating. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 43.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7%; net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was -6.1 billion yuan, the first loss since listing. The company's performance in 2022 came under pressure due to exchange gains and losses, accrued impairment, and a slowdown in settlement. We adjusted the company's 2023 performance from loss to profit (originally -13.4%). The 2024 performance growth rate was 66.2% (-36.4%), and the 2025 performance growth rate is expected to be 64.6%. We lowered the company's EPS from 2023 to 2024 to 0.03 to 0.06 yuan (originally 0.13, 0.09 yuan), and expect the 2025 EPS to be 0.10 yuan. The industry has entered a stage of bottoming out and recovering, maintaining the company's “increase in holdings” rating.
Dragged down by the external environment and land storage structure, profit margins continued to decline. The company's gross profit margin in 2022 was 7.6%, continuing to decline 3.0 pcts from 10.0% in the first half year. Third-tier and fourth-tier cities accounted for about 61% of the company's saleable resources, which were greatly affected by industry adjustments in 2022. In 2022, the company calculated impairment of 3.1 billion yuan, while the exchange loss was 8.4 billion yuan, causing the company's overall net interest rate to fall to -1.4%.
Considering the gradual recovery of the industry in 2023 and the expected reduction of external influencing factors, it is expected that the company's net interest rate will recover to a certain extent in 2023.
The company reduced inventories, adjusted land storage, and continued to downsize. Since entering the downsizing phase in 2021, the company's total assets at the end of 2022 were 1.7 trillion yuan, down 10.5% from the beginning of the year. Among them, the company's inventory fell 11.4% to 0.9 trillion yuan, and the company's interest-bearing debt fell by about 14.7% to 0.3 trillion yuan. The company controlled land investment in 2022, adding only about 9.8 billion yuan in land investment. Located in second- and third-tier cities, the saleable value dropped 35.6% to 955.5 billion yuan.
Steady downsizing has made some progress, and land investment will resume in 2023. The company has made some progress in its steady downsizing. While land storage and debt have declined, the company is more cautious in land acquisition and investment, strengthening the layout of high-energy cities and deterministic markets. The company will adjust the land storage structure in 2023, which will further reduce the share of third- and fourth-tier city projects. After a conservative period of land investment in 2022, the company will restart asset-heavy active investment in land in 2023. The plan is to make the share of land storage in Tier 1 and 2 cities reach about 50%.
Risk warning: The decline in demand has exceeded expectations, and the decline in asset prices has brought about a fall in removal that falls short of expectations.
