公司主营配方颗粒业务，2022年营收贡献超过50%；由于2022年中药配方颗粒行业进入标准切换期，受标准数量不足与临床终端需求短期下行，公司配方颗粒业务下滑。在国标与省标持续公布下，截至2023年3月30日，公司旗下北京康仁堂配方颗粒销售备案数超过300个的省份达22个，其中北京、河北等4个省市销售备案数量超过400个，同时2023年门诊量恢复下终端需求上涨、标准切换后产品提价与增量渠道开发，公司2023年配方颗粒业务有望实现强复苏。Incidents:
The company released its 2022 annual report. It achieved revenue of 6.65 billion yuan (YOY -13.30%) in 2022, net profit of 624 million yuan (YOY -9.19%), net profit of 571 million yuan (YOY -15.85%), of which 202Q4 achieved revenue of 1,750 million yuan (YOY -19.88%), and Guimo's net profit of 154 million yuan (YOY +205.96%).
The formula pellet business is expected to recover strongly
The company is mainly engaged in the formula granule business, contributing more than 50% to revenue in 2022; as the Chinese medicine formula granule industry entered a standard switching period in 2022, the company's formula granule business declined due to insufficient number of standards and a short-term decline in clinical terminal demand. As national and provincial standards continue to be announced, as of March 30, 2023, the company's Beijing Kangrentang formula granule sales have been registered in 22 provinces with more than 300 records, including 4 provinces and cities including Beijing and Hebei. At the same time, the number of sales records in 4 provinces and cities including Beijing and Hebei exceeded 400. At the same time, with rising terminal demand and product price increases and incremental channel development after the standard switch, the company's formula granule business is expected to recover strongly in 2023.
The pharmaceutical and medical device business may grow steadily
The field of finished drugs and medical devices accounted for about 39% of the company's revenue in 2022; in the proprietary medicine sector, the terminal hospital coverage rate may continue to increase after the price of BipiNet injections was reduced by 48% in 2019. At the same time, the products have been included in 23 diagnosis and treatment guidelines and expert consensus, and there is rich evidence of clinical medication use; in the medical device sector, the company expanded the international market with products such as finger clip oximeters. During the reporting period, 5 products obtained NMPA registration certificates, 3 products obtained FDA registration certificates, and the performance of the finished drug and medical device sector is expected to grow steadily.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 8549/105.71/130.90 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast for 2023-2024 revenue was 97.95/13.217 billion yuan), the corresponding growth rate was 28.6%/23.6%/23.8% respectively, adjusted 2023-2024 net profit to 99/1.156 million yuan (936/1,356 million yuan before adjustment), adding to the net profit of Fumo in 2025 was 1,576 million yuan. The corresponding growth rate was 44.3%/28.4%, respectively /36.3%, 3-year CAGR of 36.2%; EPS is 0.30/0.38/0.52 yuan/share, respectively.
Since traditional Chinese medicine formula pellets are expected to develop rapidly, the company is a leading manufacturer of formula pellets. Referring to comparable company valuations, we will give the company 25 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 7.49 yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of declining profitability, collection risk, raw material supply risk, risk of increased industry competition, etc.