The deduction in 2022 is not net profit under pressure, and it is optimistic that the demeanor will pick up in 2023.
According to the company's performance, KuaiBao, the company's revenue / return net profit / non-return net profit in 2022 was 3.86 billion yuan, respectively, which was-9.98%, 8.50%, 88.25%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The decline in non-net profit deducted by the company is mainly due to the pressure on the prosperity of the domestic optical fiber laser industry, which leads to fluctuations in the demand for upstream laser chips and the company's high investment in research and development. In addition, the underutilization of the company's capacity leads to an increase in amortization of expenses. Looking forward to 2023, as the demand of the fiber laser industry is expected to recover, and the company's special areas, lidar and other businesses are expected to continue to develop, or lead the company's performance to pick up quarter by quarter. We estimate that the company's 22-24 net return profit will be 125 million yuan (previous value: 1.42 million), corresponding to 43% of CAGR in 22-24 years. According to Wind consensus expectations, the average PEG of comparable companies in 2023 will be 1.73x. Considering the company's leading position in the field of high power laser chips, the company will be given a 23-year PEG 2x with a target price of 143.64 yuan (previous value: 145.00 yuan). Maintain "buy".
Review of 2022: weak industry demand + high investment in R & D, deduction of non-net profit in 2022
According to the company's performance KuaiBao, the reasons for the pressure on the company's deduction of non-net profit in 2022 mainly include: 1) due to the repeated epidemic situation, the slowdown in global economic growth and other macro factors, the market demand for laser is relatively weak, and the company's revenue decreased compared with the same period last year; 2) the company put into use the new plant, and the weak downstream demand led to insufficient capacity utilization, and the corresponding amortization of expenses increased. 3) the company continues to increase its R & D investment, and the corresponding R & D expenditure increases by 28.13 million yuan. On the other hand, in order to cope with the overall downturn of market demand in 2022, the company has actively opened up the market and increased R & D investment. at the same time, with the use of new sites, production and R & D conditions have been greatly improved. in order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises and better serve customers, lay a good foundation for long-term development.
Outlook for 2023: downstream demand is expected to pick up; special areas, lidar and other businesses are progressing smoothly
As a leading domestic manufacturer of high-power laser chips, driven by the landing of the new factory to promote the release of production capacity, the company is expected to continue to enhance the market share of single-tube chips and other businesses. Looking forward to 2023, with the domestic fiber laser industry demand is expected to recover, the company's performance is expected to pick up quarter by quarter. On the other hand, the company's VCSEL chip has passed the 16949 vehicle specification certification in 2022, and the cooperative manufacturers include Wesai, Suiteng, Tudatong, etc., and the lidar business is progressing smoothly; the special application field business is expected to usher in the first year of volume, bringing new growth points.
Be optimistic about the company's long-term development prospects and maintain its "buy" rating
We are optimistic about the company's leading position in the laser chip field and the long-term prospect of horizontal expansion in the optical chip industry. considering the demand fluctuation in 2022, we reduce the company's revenue forecast for single-tube chip business. it is estimated that the company's 22-24 net return profit will be 1.25pm 2.25pm 340 million yuan, corresponding to 43% CAGR in 22-24 years. According to the Wind consensus forecast, the average PEG of comparable companies in 2023 will be 1.4x. Considering the company's leading position in the field of high-power laser chips, the company is given a 23-year PEG 2x with a target price of 143.64 yuan (previous value: 145.00 yuan) to maintain a "buy".
Risk hint: downstream demand returned less than expected; the price of the company's products fell sharply.