Items:
According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, founder Securities 10 billion yuan small public offering subordinated debt project status has been updated to "effective registration."
Comments:
Subordinated debt: included in subordinated net capital, which can alleviate the net capital pressure. The small public offering subordinated debt issued by the company is mainly undertaken by Ping an Securities and a 10-year subordinated debt issued to professional investors. The total amount registered for bond issuance shall not exceed 10 billion yuan. The issuance of subordinated bonds shall, in principle, be included in the subsidiary net capital in the proportion of 100%, 70% and 50% respectively according to the maturity of more than 3 years, 2 years and 1 year. Net capital = core net capital + subsidiary net capital, that is, this subordinated debt will increase the company's net capital by 10 billion yuan in the next 7 years, but does not increase the core net capital. Among the main regulatory indicators, only the capital leverage ratio requires core net capital, and the core net capital / total off-balance sheet assets is not less than 8% (9.6% is the early warning line). Other regulatory indicators mainly focus on net capital indicators. At present, the company's capital leverage ratio is 18.94%, which is not the regulatory indicator of the company's short board.
The subprime debt issue is expected to significantly reduce the pressure on the company's regulatory indicators. Considering the landing of subprime debt, we expected the company's net stable capital ratio to increase to 170.3% and liquidity coverage to 243.8% 1. Sort out the main regulatory indicators: (1) net stable capital ratio: 139.1% at the end of 2022 (120% of the early warning line), close to the early warning line. 100% of subordinated debt with a duration of more than one year is included in the company's "available stable funds" to enhance molecular items; (2) liquidity coverage: 139.4% at the end of 2022 (120% of the early warning line), close to the early warning line. After the end of the fund-raising, raise subordinated debt funds as monetary funds, 100% into the "high-quality liquidity assets", to enhance the molecular item. However, if cash subsequently buys proprietary assets, it may be converted to different proportions according to the purchase of assets. (3) at the end of 2022, the company's self-owned non-equity securities and their derivatives / net capital was 268.2% (early warning line 400%), and proprietary equity securities and their derivatives / net capital was 37.9% (early warning line 80%). At present, there is a big gap between the company index and the regulatory index, and the pressure is not great. However, because this kind of regulatory index is difficult to be alleviated by general bond issuance, it is often an important restriction for most securities firms to develop non-directional self-management. This subprime debt issue, make preparations in advance, reduce the risk of derivatives, market-making and other business restrictions.
(4) other major regulatory indicators: at the end of 2022, the risk coverage rate was 288.3% (early warning line 120%), net capital / net assets 57.9% (early warning line 24%), net capital liability ratio 29.9% (early warning line 9.6%), net assets / liabilities 51.6% (early warning line 12%).
Investment advice: since 2022, the company has issued 8.1 billion yuan of bonds, this time 10 billion yuan of subordinated debt has gradually landed, the company's regulatory pressure has been significantly released. The 10 billion yuan subordinated debt is 23.2% of the company's net assets at the end of 2022. Superimposed regulatory indicators pressure release, corporate leverage is expected to increase rapidly by the end of the year, optimistic about ROE growth. We maintain that the company's 2023 and 2024 EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.33, 0.41, 0.49, 5.57, 5.92, 6.33, 1.26, 1.19, 1.11 and 7.77, respectively, respectively, and the ROE is 5.89, 6.88, 7.77 respectively. We maintain the company's 2023 results 1.5 times PB valuation, corresponding to the target price of 8.4 yuan, maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: shareholder change risk, increasing downward pressure on the economy, northward capital reduction, and so on.