低成本优势显著，业绩表现亮眼。在原材料、能源等成本高企以及国内市场需求疲软背景下，公司2022 年度业绩取得高增长，主要得益于公司通过积极研发推新以及把握海外市场机会，产销量取得历史新高，同时充分发挥集采浆、自制浆优势，优化原料配比，本土多元化木片采购有效降低成本。分产品看，去年制浆造纸/ 市政园林/ 林业/ 化工收入分别为64.87/ 9.82/ 7.66/ 2.10 亿元，同比增长26.6%/ -39.7%/ 141%/ -4.0%。Events:
In 2022, the company realized operating income of 9.781 billion yuan (+ 24.79%) and net profit of 616 million yuan (+ 106.51%). Of this total, the operating income in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 3.358 billion yuan (+ 62.83%), and the net profit was 142 million yuan, compared with a loss of 59 million yuan in the same period last year.
Comments:
The advantage of low cost is remarkable and the performance is eye-catching. Under the background of high costs of raw materials and energy, as well as weak domestic market demand, the company achieved high performance in 2022, mainly due to the company's record high production and sales volume through active research and development and seizing opportunities in overseas markets. at the same time, give full play to the advantages of collecting pulp and homemade pulp, optimize the proportion of raw materials, and effectively reduce the cost of local diversified wood chip procurement. In terms of products, the income from pulping and papermaking / municipal gardens / forestry / chemical industry last year was 64.87 / 9.82 / 7.66 / 210 million yuan respectively, an increase of 26.6% /-39.7% / 141% /-4.0% over the same period last year.
Last year, the company achieved paper sales of 1.083 million tons (+ 9.1%), of which exports increased by 84000 tons compared with the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the price of cultural paper has been raised under the catalysis of the peak bidding season of teaching materials and auxiliary tendering. With the low-priced pulp gradually put into storage in the second quarter, it is expected that the profit of tons of paper will continue to improve.
The gross profit margin increased compared with the same period last year, while the expense rate decreased year-on-year. In 2022, the gross profit margin of the company was 15.41% (+ 0.30pct), of which the gross profit margin of pulping and papermaking / municipal garden / forestry / chemical industry was 16.76%, 14.43% / 2.90% / 29.80%, respectively, and the year-on-year change was + 1.26 pct/ + 1.73 pct/-0.98 pct/-1.82 pct.
In 2022, the company expense rate was 8.95% (- 1.78 pct), of which the sales expense rate was 1.15% (- 0.38 pct), the management expense rate was 3.00% (- 0.73 pct), the R & D expense rate was 3.09% (- 0.08 pct), and the financial expense rate was 1.71% (- 0.60 pct). The decrease in financial expense rate was mainly due to the reduction of interest expenses.
The production capacity has been put forward steadily, and the forestry carbon sequestration has been actively distributed. The annual paper production capacity of the company is 1 million tons, and the pulp self-sufficiency rate is 50%. The production capacity of culture paper and matching 200000 tons of chemical pulp is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2024. In 2022, the company signed 9 formal development contracts, involving 35.11 million mu of carbon sequestration forest land (including 2.56 million mu of farmland). It is expected that a total of 50 million mu of forestry carbon sequestration will be signed by the end of 2025, and more carbon sequestration assessment methodologies will be developed in the future. cover farmland, ocean, grassland and other types of carbon sequestration resources. With the implementation of CCER carbon trading policy, the company's carbon sequestration income is expected to increase.
Profit forecast: according to the annual report adjustment forecast and target price, the estimated return net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 7.31 / 8.24 / 1.037 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 17.9 / 15.9 / 12.6x. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: paper price fell, CCER landed slower than expected, profit and valuation judgment fell short of expectations.
