Net profit became positive, and the gap in NBV continued to narrow compared with the same period last year. AIA Group Limited achieved revenue / return net profit of US $191.10 / 282 million in 2022, and yoy-59.8% Maximi 96.2% bot OPat CER (fixed exchange rate year-on-year performance) + 3% to US $6.37 billion. EV CER-3% to US $68.865 billion is mainly affected by the negative contribution of differences in investment returns (yoy-517% to-US $5.392 billion), exchange rate movements (contribution of-US $2.264 billion) and share buybacks (excluding share buybacks, EV yoy-0.8%); ROEV yoy-2.7pct to 9.4%. In 2022, the company realized NBV / ANP 30.92 / 5.407 billion US dollars, CER- 5% / + 0% X NBVM for 57.0% CERmuri 2.4 pct. Among them, Q4 single quarter NBV / ANP / NBVMyoy-0.2% / + 1.5% /-1.0pct.
Market segments: 1) Chinese mainland: staff increase, per capita income performance is eye-catching, post-epidemic recovery is strong. NBV / ANP / NBVM / OPAT CER in 22 years is-15% /-4% /-9.6pct / + 8%, and the per capita income of agents is + 6% year on year. As of the end of 22 years, the scale of agents was + 6% higher than that in January 22. Benefiting from the post-epidemic recovery, NBV increased rapidly in February 23; 2) Hong Kong, China: both mainland MCV and local business increased. NBV/ANP/NBVM/OPAT CER + 4 per cent /-3 per cent / + 5.5pct / + 4 per cent in 22 years (Macau MCV NBV is more than three times what it was in 21 years); 3) Southeast Asia: business recovery is strong, Thailand / Singapore / Malaysia NBV CER + 5 / + 1 / + 15 per cent.
The margin of H2 on the investment side has improved, and the share buyback plan has progressed steadily. The rate of return on fixed investment / actual investment of the company in 2022 is 4.2% / 1.1%, which is higher than that of 22H1+0.1pct/+1.6pct. By the end of 2022, the company's investment assets were-14.5% to $215.962 billion compared with the beginning of the year; of which, the proportion of fixed income / equity / real estate / other assets was 77.7%, 15.3%, 3.2%, 3.8%, respectively, higher than the 22H1 level-0.6pct/-0.6pct/+0.1pct/+1.1pct. The company's share buyback plan is progressing steadily, with a cumulative return of US $3.57 billion in 2022, accounting for 35.7% of the total plan.
Investment advice: as the core target under the logic of post-epidemic recovery, the company's customer demand is resilient and grows better than comparable peers, share buybacks are expected to continue to support the valuation, and it is recommended to focus on the recovery of business in Hong Kong, China and Chinese mainland. The current share price corresponds to 23-year P/EV1.68 times, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: interest rate risk, policy risk, market volatility risk, recurrent epidemic situation.