Event: Sotavig issued a 2022 performance forecast, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.5-1.8 billion yuan, expected to achieve a net profit of 2.6-360 million yuan, compared with the 2021 performance, basically hovering at the same level. Changzhou Huarisheng acquired by the company has an asset impairment of 2.3-310 million yuan in 2022, which is the main reason for the loss.
Multiple factors affect profitability: Changzhou Huarisheng, which has experienced large-scale asset impairment, mainly produces reflective materials, with chemical raw materials accounting for about 40% of its costs. Geopolitical tensions in 2022 led to fluctuations in raw material prices, seriously affecting its gross profit margin. The company has made a comprehensive optimization and integration of its procurement, production and sales work. At the same time, with commodity prices stabilizing and infrastructure recovering, downstream customer procurement demand is expected to pick up, and reflective material performance is expected to pick up in 2023.
Micro-nano optical business is expected to pick up with the consumer environment: the company's micro-nano optical products mainly include high-end consumer goods packaging materials, light guide plates, conductive films. Conductive films and light conductive plates are widely used in the field of consumer electronics.
Among them, the company's conductive film products, compared with the traditional infrared scheme, has advantages in accuracy and stability, and is expected to accelerate penetration in the future. On the whole, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of consumption, the company's micro-nano optical business is expected to achieve rapid growth.
Micro / nano devices and gratings lead future growth: the company's equipment products include non-IC lithography machines and nano-imprint devices. The company's lithography equipment has been shipped and sold to enterprises in the semiconductor field; the application in the photovoltaic field is also being actively explored, which is expected to promote the photovoltaic industry to reduce costs. In addition, the company provides positioning grating products for lithography machines to Shanghai Microelectronics. The company's lithography equipment and gratings have high-tech content, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability in the future.
Investment suggestion: from 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve an operating income of 1.735 million yuan and a net profit of-2.86 million yuan and 1.99 billion yuan. The corresponding PE in 2023 and 2024 is 25.90 and 14.91 times, respectively, and is rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: the progress of research and development of new equipment and technology is not as expected; the price of raw materials is rising; and the consumer electronics market is depressed.