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福田汽车(600166):1-2月中重卡累计销量率先同比转正 基本面拐点已确立

Foton Motor (600166): The cumulative sales volume of heavy trucks in January-February was the first to be corrected year-on-year, and the fundamental inflection point has been established

廣發證券 ·  Mar 10, 2023 07:51  · Researches

From January to February in 2023, Fukuda heavy truck sales became regular year-on-year, and Fudai's market share increased significantly compared with the same period last year.

According to production and marketing KuaiBao, Foton Motor sold 12000 medium and heavy trucks in February 23, + 35.2% from the same period last year, and + 56.6% from January to February of 23, with a total of 20000 medium and heavy trucks sold, + 5.9% from the same period last year. Fudai sold 8000 vehicles in February of 23, + 70.0% of the same period last year, and + 59.0% of the total sales of Fudai in January-February of 23, which was + 30.8% of the same period last year. According to the first Commercial vehicle Network, the wholesale sales of heavy trucks in February 23 were 68000, + 15% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative wholesale sales of heavy trucks in January-February 23 were 117000,-25% compared with the same period last year. The sales volume of Fudai in February is better than that of the industry, and the cumulative sales in January-February is better than that of the industry. According to the first Commercial vehicle Network, the China Automobile Association, and the company's production and marketing KuaiBao, Fudai's cumulative market share in January-February of 23 years is about 11.0%, which is + 4.6pct compared with the same period last year.

From January to February in 2023, the sales of light trucks, big passengers and light passengers are all growing compared with the same period last year. According to production and marketing KuaiBao, Foton Motor sold 41000 light trucks in February 23, + 63.6% from the same period last year, and + 107.6% from January to February, with a total sales of 61000 light trucks, + 13.0% from the same period last year. According to production and marketing KuaiBao, Foton Motor sold 1326, 125 and 8523 large, medium and light passengers respectively from January to February 23, which was + 99.4%,-50.8% and + 79.4% respectively compared with the same period last year.

Profit forecast and investment advice: Foton Motor is the truck industry's cumulative sales first to become a regular company compared with the same period last year, and it is also one of the healthiest companies in the industry at present. With 23 years of industry recovery or release of greater performance elasticity, there are obvious income side Alpha in the next few years, and it is expected to become the truck company with the largest profit elasticity in this round. We expect the company's EPS for 22-24 years to be 0.01Universe 0.22and0.30 yuan. Over the past 19 years, the company has carried out three buybacks for the employee stock ownership plan, and the management is in line with the interests of minority shareholders. The company has been focusing on improving ROE in the past few years, and is expected to become the leading company in this round of state-owned enterprise reform of the automobile industry. Considering that the industry is still in the early stages of recovery, future sales may hit an all-time high and the inflection point is present, we raise our valuation and give the company 27 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to a fair value of 6.01 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk tips: declining prosperity of the industry, rising prices of raw materials, intensified competition in the industry, and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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