Incident: The company released its 2022 performance report. 2022 revenue was 920 million yuan, an increase of 52% over the previous year, and Guimu's net profit was 91 million yuan, an increase of 12% over the previous year. In the Q4 quarter, revenue was 300 million yuan, down 13% year on year and up 68% month on month; Guimu's net profit was 46.7 million yuan, down 37% year on year, and up 270% month on month. The company's performance is clearly seasonal, and the annual results are basically in line with our expectations.

In-hand orders are sufficient, delivery capacity has improved, and revenue is growing rapidly. The company focuses on the research and development of the intelligent warehousing industry and implements multi-industry layout strategies. As of June 30, 2022, the company's unconfirmed revenue orders were 1.03 billion yuan, and there were sufficient orders on hand. As the company's delivery capacity continued to improve, the number of successfully delivered projects increased dramatically in 2022, and revenue increased rapidly by 52% as a result; due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and order structure, profit growth was relatively steady.

Build core technical barriers, focus on high-end markets, and lead the industry in profitability. The company attaches great importance to R&D innovation. The proportion of R&D personnel is nearly 30%, and the R&D cost rate has reached 8.6% in the past 5 years. It has core competitiveness in intelligent logistics software technology and hardware equipment such as intelligent robots. With strong R&D innovation and customization capabilities, the company focuses on the high-end market. The main customers include China Tobacco, Procter & Gamble, etc. The gross margin of the project is 10 percentage points higher than that of domestic peers, and it is one of the few Chinese brands that can export complete sets of high-end logistics equipment to developed countries overseas. It is expected to grow into an industry leader with its technological advantages.

The number of new orders received continues to increase, production capacity is expanded to guarantee delivery capacity, and the certainty of performance growth is strong. In the first half of 2022, the company added an order amount of 630 million yuan and achieved a major breakthrough in the aerospace industry, signing contracts and winning bids totaling 150 million yuan. At the same time, the company is actively increasing the production capacity of the intelligent logistics system. The new Super Future factory will be put into operation in 2022, which can support the company's order size of 2 billion yuan, guarantee order delivery capacity, and further strengthen cost control capabilities.

Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's net profit for 2022-2024 is estimated to be 0.9, 140, and 180 million yuan respectively. The compound growth rate of net profit to the mother in the next three years will be 30.6%, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of falling new orders, risk of technology and product backwardness, increased risk of industry competition.