Report guide
Active phased array radar series report: we first released the active phased array radar theme report on September 29, 2022, and once again launched the core target under this theme-lightning micro-force. We believe that high industry growth, corporate performance growth and low valuations may lead to an increase in the company's market capitalization.
Main points of investment
The company directly benefits from the high growth of active phased array industry.
The advance of military information and intelligence has brought about the continuous promotion of active phased array technology. considering the replacement of new equipment and old equipment, we estimate that the overall market scale will reach 100 billion during the 14th five-year Plan period. Through the analysis of the performance of the core target of the relevant industrial chain, we think that the whole industry has entered an accelerated release period.
The company's product value ratio is high, the industry barrier is strong and the competitive advantage is guaranteed. Through the analysis of the relevant targets of active phased array radar in the market, lightning micro-force is of high value in the products. Considering the technical difficulty of active phased array microsystem, the limitation of military qualification and supply chain management, we believe that the company may continue to maintain its competitive advantage.
The abundance of orders brings high performance growth, and there is room for growth at the bottom of the valuation with reference to the prospectus and the newly increased orders in February 2022, and the company has more orders on hand, taking into account the gradual commissioning of fund-raising projects, capacity release and order delivery. high performance growth in the future is guaranteed. Compared with other targets in the industrial chain, the company's valuation is still at the bottom, performance growth and valuation improvement may lead to an increase in market value.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 9.93 million, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 38.93%. The corresponding net profit of return to the mother was 2.93 yuan 3.89 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 43.85%.
The EPS was 1.68, 2.23 and 3.44 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 48.26X, 36.28X, 23.55X, respectively. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The installation of weapons and equipment is not as expected; the intensification of the competition pattern leads to the decline of market share; and the overall unit squeeze cost brings the impact of price reduction.