Core viewpoints
1. The company is expected to achieve a return net profit of-5.3 to-450 million yuan in 2022. The decline in the company's performance is mainly due to the non-recurrent impact of changes in fair value, the decline in product sales under the impact of the epidemic, the delay in project delivery and the provision of asset impairment losses. As the impact of the epidemic dissipates and the company continues to expand its business to central state-owned enterprises and telecom operators, the company's performance is expected to be repaired in the future. In addition, the policy guidelines for car networking are clear, the demand for smart transport continues to rise, and the company's smart transport business is expected to benefit.
2. The company deeply distributes the intelligent IoT field through Yushi technology, the business boundary is continuously broadened, the landing scene is more diversified, the company increases the market sinking and global layout, and the IoT business revenue is expected to further grow. Broad view intelligent edge computing and other scenarios AI applications, with the company's business landing. The company's intelligent couplet and artificial intelligence business is expected to achieve sustained growth. In addition, the company invests in Lianlu Intelligence to help the company realize the vehicle networking strategy of closed-loop vehicles. The company's 22-year performance is under short-term pressure, looking forward to 23 years, multiple positive superposition, helping the company's performance repair.
Event
On January 30, 2023, the company issued a performance forecast for 2022. The company expects to achieve a net profit of-5.3 to-450 million yuan in 2022, compared with 720 million yuan in the same period last year, and is expected to deduct non-return net profit from-2.8 yuan to-200 million yuan. In the same period last year, the deduction of non-return net profit is 630 million yuan, and the basic earnings per share are expected to be-0.34 to-0.28 yuan per share. In the same period last year, basic earnings per share was 0.46 yuan per share.
Brief comment
1. The company's performance in 22 years is under pressure by fair value changes, asset impairment losses and other factors.
In 2022, the company is expected to realize the net profit of-5.30 to-450 million yuan, and the non-return net profit is expected to be deducted from-2.8 to-200 million yuan. The main factors for the decline in the company's performance include that the decline in the fair value of the company's holding Hongquan has an impact on net profit of about 294 million yuan; due to the influence of the external environment, the sales of the company's products and solutions have declined, and the delivery of some projects has been delayed; at the same time, the company has made asset impairment losses on inventory and goodwill, resulting in a loss in net profit in 2022. We believe that the losses caused by fair value changes are non-recurrent profits and losses, not caused by changes in the company's business; the company was greatly affected by the epidemic in 2022, and the company's performance is expected to be repaired in the future as the impact of the epidemic dissipates and the company continues to expand its business.
2. The company is the leader of intelligent transportation industry, continuously ploughing urban and intercity transportation.
The company is a leading digital solution provider in the transportation industry in China, deeply ploughing the intelligent transportation industry for 22 years. The company provides comprehensive law enforcement, car federation supervision, intelligent intersection, road network monitoring and evaluation and other products and solutions and applied to more than 150 countries and regions, covering 31 provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions and more than 300 cities, serving more than 2000 industry head customers. Through the 2B2C model to provide support for about 300 million people a day to travel, a total of more than 6000 large and medium-sized smart transportation projects have been successfully delivered. The main customer of the company's urban transportation business is the local government. With the relaxation of the control of the epidemic, the problem of local government urban transport financial investment gradually begins to ease, and the company's urban transport business is expected to improve significantly; the recovery cycle of the company's intercity transport business is ahead of schedule, and the company's intercity traffic orders began to grow again in the first three quarters of 22 years. Superimposed clear guidelines on various vehicle networking policies, such as the release of Shenzhen's first regulations on intelligent car management, the demand for intelligent transportation will continue to rise, and the company, as an industry leader, is expected to benefit.
3. The business boundary of Intelligent things Union continues to expand, and the subsidiary companies rise abruptly based on their accumulated strength.
The company deeply distributes the field of intelligent things through its subsidiary Yushi Technology, which is the top three in China and the fourth in the world. Yushi Technology has expanded the intelligent couplet from security to transportation, entertainment, logistics, retail, catering and other fields, the company's intelligent IoT industry boundaries continue to broaden, landing scenes are more diversified. The company is enabling the vision-centered AIoT to Qianhang Baiye, raising gross profit margin through the double sinking of products and channels. In March 2022, Yushi Technology released "A Yu" to complete the sinking of the county and town market. At the same time, the company deepens the strategic layout of globalization. by June 2022, the company has established 15 international subsidiaries to deliver products and solutions to more than 200 countries and regions around the world, and the company's overseas revenue will grow rapidly.
The company has allocated itself and part of the R & D strength of Yushi Technology to set up a subsidiary, Bo View Intelligence, to do AI intelligence application research. The broad intelligent positioning is mainly as follows:
Internally, increase the competitiveness of Qianfang Technology's own transportation and IoT product solutions; externally, enable marginal computing, benefit AI applications in the old market and other scenarios; at the same time, with the company's new needs and new business landing, Bo View Intelligence will actively enter the digital countryside, vlog and university market in the future, helping the company's product and channel market to sink. In addition, the company has invested in Lianlu Intelligence to enter the Intelligent Network-connected Automotive Electronic Racetrack and launched OBU, ETC, body control and other products, which have been landed in the Great Wall, BMW, Guangzhou Automobile, NIO Inc., ideal and other car factories.
4. Profit forecast and investment suggestions. As a leading intelligent transportation enterprise, the company has been under pressure on its short-term performance due to the epidemic and fair value changes in the past 22 years. It is expected that with the deregulation of the epidemic, the financial pressure of local governments will gradually ease, and at the same time, the company is seeking new customer breakthroughs. The company's intelligent transportation business will be significantly improved. Through the subsidiaries of Yushi Technology, Broad Intelligence, Lianlu Intelligence, etc., the company deeply distributes the fields of intelligent things, artificial intelligence and automotive electronics to realize the closed loop of business and open up a new round of growth space. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of-487 million yuan, 695 million yuan and 984 million yuan in 2022-2024, corresponding to the current market capitalization of PE of-35x, 24x, 17x, maintaining a "buy" rating.
5. Risk hint. At present, the main source of income from the company's urban transportation business is the local government. Under the relaxation of epidemic control, it is expected that the problem of local government urban transport financial investment will gradually begin to ease. However, if the future local government investment is not as expected and the relevant vehicle networking policies are not as expected, it will have a greater impact on the company's intelligent transportation business and the overall business. The landing scene of the smart things project is more diversified, and the company is actively sinking its products and channels, but if the demand of the downstream application scenario is lower than expected, it will affect the company's business expansion, which will drag down the company's business; the company will actively open up overseas markets, if overseas competition intensifies, it will affect the company's gross profit margin of overseas products, so the company's net profit will be lower than expected.
