Overview of events
According to the annual performance forecast issued by the company in 2022, the net profit attributed to the owner of the parent company in 2022 was about 385 million yuan, an increase of about 177% over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses attributed to the owner of the parent company was about 375 million yuan, an increase of about 54438% over the same period last year. The company's performance slightly exceeded our expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
Merge Yuehua Bao B to further optimize and adjust the product structure.
The main reasons for the pre-increase in the company's performance are as follows: 1) the company completed the stock exchange to absorb and merge Yuehua Bao B in August 2021, as Yuehua Bao was included in the company's consolidated statement, resulting in a larger increase in net profit for the current period compared with the same period last year. 2) in 2021, Zhuhai Guanhao Bar Code Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, filed for bankruptcy due to insolvency, and the company calculated an impairment loss of 159 million yuan on its creditor's rights and equity investment, but this is not the case in this period. 3) in this period, the company actively gave full play to the synergy effect of restructuring, further optimized and adjusted the product structure, paid close attention to the improvement of quality and efficiency, the production and sales volume broke through the historical record, the export business increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the profitability of self-adhesive business increased steadily. The transformation of scientific and technological innovation achievements has been accelerated to promote the double growth of revenue and profit. At the same time, the company has fully implemented lean management and achieved good results, the effectiveness of cost control is prominent, and the narrowing of three expenses promotes the improvement of profits.
Pulp prices are expected to fall, and the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve.
The company's main products special paper and white cardboard are wood pulp as the main material. Since Q1 in 2022, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the prices of energy, chemical raw materials, wood chips and logistics remain high, the operating costs of the paper industry are rising, and the profit space of the paper industry is squeezed. In January 2023, Chilean pulp manufacturer Arauco announced that the price of Silver Star needle pulp for January 2023 was US $920 / t, which was US $20 / t lower than that of the previous round. Not long ago, Suzano, Brazil's largest pulp company, lowered its offer for broad-leaf pulp to US $820 per tonne, which had been hovering at US $860 per tonne for nearly half a year. With the expected return of high pulp prices, the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Investment suggestion
We are optimistic about Guanhao high-tech, the company as a leading enterprise in the specialty paper industry, the product line mainly includes special paper, self-adhesive labels and special white cardboard. In the short term, downstream demand rebounds and costs fall, which is good for the company's performance to further improve. In the medium and long term, the company's specialty paper business and white card business will benefit from the company's own capacity expansion and increased share in the high-quality customer supply system. We keep the company's revenue forecast for 2022, 2023, and 2024 unchanged at 83.62, 8605 and 10.316 billion, respectively. According to the company's performance forecast, we have raised the company's EPS forecast from 0.20 to 0.21, 0.26 and 0.31, respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 4.07 yuan per share on January 16, and PE of 19.515.7 and 13.3X, respectively. Continue to give a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1) macroeconomic fluctuations lead to lower-than-expected downstream demand; 2) continued high fluctuations in raw material prices lead to a decline in corporate profitability. 3) the high-end packaging new materials project in the southern base of the group is still in the stage of environmental impact assessment, and even if it is put into production, it is difficult to accurately judge the progress of asset injection due to the major shareholders' commitment to avoid inter-industry competition.
