Main points of investment
Event: on the evening of February 23, the company issued an announcement on the signing of major contracts for daily operation.
The total contract signed with Junda Group in the past 12 months is about 165 million yuan, and the profitability of the automation equipment business will be enhanced. The cumulative amount of daily operation contracts signed between the company and two holding subsidiaries of Junda Group within 12 consecutive months is about 165 million yuan (including tax). The object of the contract is industrial automation equipment and transformation. Among them, some contracts signed in 2022 are about 75 million yuan, and those signed from January to February 23 in 2023 are about 90 million yuan.
The company disclosed that it has signed contracts with Yingfa Group, Tianhe Group, Tongwei Group, Runyang Photovoltaic Group, Jingke Group and Junda Group totaling about 870 million yuan. We expect the profitability of automation equipment to increase in 2023.
TOPcon battery production will be greatly expanded, the main photovoltaic automation equipment will benefit according to the company announcement, the company expects the scale of TOPcon battery expansion in 2023 to exceed 200GW, optimistically estimated to be close to 300GW, and the downstream demand for automation equipment is strong. We expect that the expansion of TOPCon battery production in 2022 is expected to exceed 80GW. 2023-2025 is expected to reach a peak, and the average annual production expansion is expected to exceed 200GW. As the leader of domestic photovoltaic automation equipment, the company actively lays out the technological innovation in the field of TOPcon cells. In the future, with the gradual delivery of orders and the continuous increase of new projects, the profitability of the main business is expected to continue to improve.
Copper plating project continues to advance, the company is expected to become a new entrant to battery process equipment according to the company announcement, in January 2023, the company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with SPIC to establish omni-directional strategic cooperation on copper grid heterojunction battery VDI plating technology solutions. The copper plating scheme of the company has typical technical characteristics such as large production capacity, strong flexibility and easy maintenance, and the production capacity can be adjusted in the 7200wph-16000wph range as needed. The scheme is expected to enter the second stage of verification (full docking automation equipment) at the end of February or early March, and will enter the necessary scheme optimization link after the relevant verification has been successfully passed. The company actively promotes the copper plating project and is expected to become a new entrant to battery process equipment.
Looking to the future: "new energy + pan-semiconductor" dual main industry development, the future market capitalization has a large upward space 1) ficonTEC: due to the epidemic and other factors, technical reasons will be terminated, the follow-up will restart the restructuring when the time is ripe and various conditions are in place, and it is expected that the overall valuation of the company will be further enhanced in the future. 2) Photovoltaic process equipment: copper plating equipment has been successfully delivered, and the cooperation framework has been signed. With the leveling of HJT and PERC battery costs, the market space of HJT-related process equipment is expected to open quickly; 3) Pan-semiconductor process equipment: products can be compared with core source micro, Shengmei Shanghai; overall, it is expected that there is still room for upward market capitalization in the future.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.3,1.2 and 220 million yuan respectively, up 273% and 81% from 2023 to 2024 compared with the same period last year, corresponding to PE 193,52 and 29X. As the leader of high-end automation equipment, new energy and pan-semiconductors are expected to increase their performance and maintain their "buy" rating in the future.
Risk hint
1) the expansion of new technology is not as expected; 2) the epidemic affects order delivery.