Analysis of the current investment value of Hong Kong stocks:
1. The expected annualized return of Hong Kong stocks in the next five years is 10.59%. We take the dividend yield ttm of the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index for the past five years as the expected value of the future dividend yield, and the expected equity dilution ratio is-2%.
Based on the income decomposition model introduced above, we can get that the expected annualized return of the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index in the next five years is 10.59%, and Hong Kong stocks have a high allocation value for a long time.
2. Hong Kong stocks have the advantage of odds at present. Hong Kong stocks have been fluctuating and falling for nearly two years since the beginning of 2021. Although Hong Kong stocks have rebounded for about a month recently, the current valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still at a historically low level, and the equity risk premium of Hong Kong stocks is at a high level. Compared with overseas markets, Hong Kong stocks have obvious valuation advantages, so we think Hong Kong stocks still have odds advantage.
3. At present, Hong Kong stocks have the driving factor of marginal victory rate. At present, Hong Kong stocks are mainly driven by the following two dimensions: 1) the rapid repair of foreign risk preference; 2) China's economy is expected to begin to recover gradually. With the repair of foreign risk preference, foreign capital is expected to continue to flow into Hong Kong stocks, which is conducive to the stabilization of Hong Kong stocks. With the gradual improvement of China's economy in the future, the profits of Hong Kong stock companies are expected to start continuous repair.
Investment value Analysis of the 50 Index of China Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Connect:
1. Index layout of leading enterprises in Hong Kong stocks. The compilation rules of the CSI-Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index reflect the overall performance of large-cap stocks of Hong Kong Stock Connect. The index is mainly over-allocated to banking, non-bank finance, media, social services and other industries.
From the point of view of the market value distribution of index stocks, index positions tend to be large market capitalization.
2. The historical performance of the index is excellent. As of January 6, 2023, the index has substantially outperformed the Hang Seng Index since the base day, with a cumulative excess return of 13.62% relative to the Hang Seng Index.
3, the index valuation has the performance-to-price ratio, the profit has the growth. At present, no matter from the PE valuation or PB valuation, the index valuation level is not high, the valuation space is small, the repair probability is large, and the current index has a high performance-to-price ratio of investment. From the perspective of consistent earnings expectations, the future growth of the index is foreseeable.
Investment value Analysis of 50ETF Fund of Huaxia Stock Exchange between Hong Kong and China:
1. The underlying index of Huaxia China Stock Exchange Hong Kong Stock Connect 50ETF Fund is the China Stock Exchange 50 Index. The fund was established on December 16, 2021 and listed on December 28, 2021. The investment goal of the fund is to closely track the underlying index, pursue the minimization of tracking deviation and tracking error, and strive to ensure that the absolute value of daily tracking deviation does not exceed 0.2%, and the annual tracking error does not exceed 2%.
2. Mr. Li Jun, the fund manager, has rich experience in passive product management. Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. has a complete ETF product line. As of January 6, 2023, Mr. Li Jun, the fund manager, has a management scale of 29.091 billion yuan and has rich experience in passive product management. Huaxia Fund is in charge of ETF69 only, the products cover wide base, industry, theme, QDII, gold and other categories, the product line is complete.
Risk hint: this report makes an objective analysis of specific fund products from the perspective of historical statistics. When the market environment or fund investment strategy changes, it can not guarantee the future continuity of statistical conclusions.
This report does not constitute a recommendation for fund products.