Main points of investment
Events:
On February 21, 99 Mao issued an annual performance forecast, with an estimated annual revenue of 4.01 billion yuan (YoY-4.17%) and a net profit of 47 million yuan (YoY-86.2%) for 22 years. Excluding exchange gains and losses of-56.06 million yuan, 22H2 made a profit of 45.06 million yuan, down 67.1% from the same period last year.
Comments: the superimposed "first shock" of the epidemic causes H2 losses, but it is optimistic about the recovery. 1) the impact of H2 epidemic is still serious, and the superimposed "first shock" at the end of the year leads to H2 losses under GAAP, but excluding exchange gains and losses.
We believe that the epidemic is the main cause of the company's 22H2 losses, while the market underestimates the impact of the "first wave of shocks" and exchange gains and losses is the main reason why 22H2 profits under GAAP differ greatly from Bloomberg's consensus expectations. Specifically, according to the company announcement, 22H2's revenue is 2.11 billion yuan (YoY-2.4% GAAP Hoh + 10.9%) and its GAAP is-11 million yuan (QoQ-119%), which is lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectations of 19.9% and 105%, respectively, but we think that such performance is generally in line with market expectations. First, Bloomberg's consistent expectations or due to the long update time, did not take into account the changes that occurred in December. Second, Bloomberg unanimously expected or did not fully take into account the impact of exchange gains and losses. From an operational point of view, we believe that the main reason for the decline in 22H2 profits is that the revenue caused by the epidemic has been damaged, but the fixed expenses such as store rent, water and electricity costs, and employee salaries cannot be reduced accordingly. According to the official WeChat Mini Programs data of Taier, at the beginning of the opening of Taier in December 22, the number of queues in stores was even much lower than that during the epidemic control period: on December 18, the queues in first-and third-tier cities were respectively 35-44-14. The weekend peak before the release of epidemic control was generally more than 500, 200. The gap between revenue and cost during this period may have been partially ignored because of the deregulation of the epidemic.
2) the bottom layout of the company, the chafing pot is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth, and is optimistic about the recovery speed of the company in the post-epidemic era.
The company still maintains a certain rate of expansion in 22H2, and saw high flexibility during the 23-year period of New Year's Day. We think that the basic plate of Taier is solid, and hot pot is about to enter a period of high-speed growth, and the current time should remain optimistic.
Specifically, according to the company announcement, the number of 22H1 Taier stores is 384. According to WeChat Mini Programs's data, the number of 22H2 Taier stores is about 455, and the number of stores increased by 71 in the second half of the year, higher than 22H1's 34. We believe that this kind of capacity expansion can bring performance flexibility to the company in 23H1. We can see from WeChat Mini Programs's queuing data that the peak number of New Year's Day Taier is twice that of the epidemic control period, and that of New Year's Day in the Spring Festival and several weekends after the Spring Festival is about twice that of New Year's Day (see appendix chart). And the expansion of stores may not dilute the revenue of individual stores. At the same time, hot pot in the single-store model after running, 23 years is expected to enter the high-speed period of expanding stores. The stability of Taier basic plate and the increment brought by chafing pot are expected to make the company recover faster than the overall catering market in the post-epidemic era.
Investment suggestion
We are optimistic about the speed of the company's recovery in the post-epidemic era and the performance flexibility brought by the chafing pot in the future, but due to the greater impact caused by the superimposed "first wave shock" of the 22H2 epidemic, we downgrade our performance for 22 years, but we are still optimistic about the company's 23-24 performance. To sum up, we adjusted the company's 22-24 revenue to 754104 million yuan, and the parent net profit under Non-GAAP was 0.64 hundred and eighty-eight million yuan, corresponding to the times that of 436-41-26, respectively, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The weaker-than-expected macroeconomic recovery led to weak consumption and food safety incidents.