Sand casting equipment & casting business two-wheel drive
The company specializes in the field of sand casting, with high-end core-making equipment and high-quality aluminum alloy castings as its core business, and can provide a full range of core-making equipment development and manufacturing services from core shooters (core-making process core mainframe) to intelligent casting workshop. at the same time, the company mainly engaged in heat exchangers, commercial vehicle parts and rail parts and other high-end aluminum alloy casting business. From 2017 to 2021, the company's revenue and return net profit CAGR were 18.40% and 20.72%, respectively. According to the company's performance forecast, affected by the epidemic, the annual operating income in 2022 was 600 million yuan to 630 million yuan, down 11.74% to 15.94% from the same period last year; and the net profit was 35 million yuan to 45 million yuan, down 63.52% to 71.63% from the same period last year.
Casting equipment: specialized sand casting direction, in line with the development trend of technology, according to the "Application and Prospect of Precision Core Molding Technology", the market space of sand casting equipment in China has reached 5 billion yuan in 2018, and it is expected that the market space will reach more than 10 billion yuan in 2035, corresponding to CAGR of about 6%. The core technology of the company's core-making equipment has been deeply accumulated, and the performance of the core-shooting machine is in the forefront of the industry. The company's cold core technology and inorganic core shooter mainly compete with international brands such as Lampe in Germany and Lola Mendi in Spain in the domestic market. The company will push through the old and bring forth the new to promote the research on large-scale aluminum alloy thin-walled parts; the company is expected to deepen the process of going out to sea and increase its profitability by relying on the overseas factories of Leipzig subsidiaries.
Aluminum alloy castings: production expansion & downstream expansion brings broad development space according to the "Aluminum Age (Aluminium Times)" statistics, it is estimated that by 2025, the global market share of aluminum alloy castings will reach 97.36 billion US dollars. When the company goes public in 2021, the investment project plans to form a casting production capacity of 8500 tons / year for heat exchanger parts and 3000 tons / year for automotive lightweight chassis parts; the company produces 8729.76 tons in 2020, and the company's production capacity has doubled with the landing of the investment project. The company realizes the import substitution of high-end aluminum alloy castings such as new energy vehicle lightweight chassis, high-speed rail brake valve, construction machinery hydraulic control valve body, low-carbon gas heat exchanger, and opens up new market space such as hydrogen power and photovoltaic equipment.
New growth curve of casting new products-- heterojunction PECVD aluminum alloy vacuum cavity at the end of 2022 China's HJT production capacity will exceed 10GW HJT 2023 production capacity planning has exceeded 60GW. Compared with profile processing, the advantages of precision sand casting are as follows: 1. Can carry on the product structure and the product material fine design, the comprehensive economic performance is good. two。 Save processing hours, more suitable for the delivery of large quantities of products to ensure the stability of the supply chain. The company's products are in the process of pre-verification. Under the neutral assumption of 4.25 million yuan / GW, we predict that the market space of 2022-2025 aluminum alloy vacuum cavity will be 0.4 million RMB 2.6 × 4.3 billion RMB respectively, which will fully benefit from HJT production expansion and equipment manufacturers' cost reduction and guaranteed delivery demand.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating
We forecast that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 620xxx11389 million yuan respectively, the net profit from home will be 0.44 pound 163x267 million, the net profit from 2021 to 2024 will be 29%, and the diluted EPS based on the current total share capital of 124 million shares will be 0.35 pound 1.32pm 2.15 yuan.
The PE multiple of the company's current stock price for the predicted EPS from 2022 to 2024 is 86-23-14, respectively. We select Izumi, which is also an equipment manufacturing industry, which produces special equipment for molding, and Platinum, which is a 3D printing equipment, and selects Wencan shares and Xusheng shares, which are mainly aluminum alloy castings, as comparable companies. Benefiting from the advanced nature of high-end sand casting equipment, the company continues to expand the downstream scene of castings, bringing high growth to the company, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.