Kuaike Co., Ltd. is the leading solder welding equipment in China. In recent years, the company has actively promoted multi-line business layout and key customer strategy. The product end has expanded precision dispensing, laser welding / marking, AOI testing, semiconductor solid crystal machine, millimeter wave radar packaging and other equipment. Customer level to strengthen cooperation with A company, and actively expand Huawei and other major customers. This report combs Quick's business outlook in detail and calculates the market space of Xintuo products. We strongly recommend and rate Kuaike shares for the first time.
Domestic tin welding equipment leader, based on the welding machine, actively expand the line of business and create whole-line assembly solutions in the fields of electronics, semiconductors, automotive electronics and so on. Relying on the accumulation in the field of tin welding, the company keeps ahead of the growth of the industry in the product market of tin welding workbench and welding robot. Under the background of the differentiated growth of smartphones, AR/VR devices and wearable products, Quick grasps the micro-fine trend of products in the industry to build overall solutions before and after welding around precision welding, including laser marking, AOI testing, high-speed dispensing and other equipment. We have calculated the scale of the relevant equipment market in the direction of electronic assembly that the company is involved in, and it is expected that the welding equipment industry will grow steadily by no more than 10%, while the market size of AOI equipment will grow from 11.4 billion yuan in 2021 to 27.6 billion yuan in 2025, and the market size of high-speed dispensing machine will grow from 1.8 billion yuan in 2021 to 3.9 billion yuan in 2025. In addition, in the field of automotive electronics, in addition to the welding equipment requirements of traditional parts, the company grasps the future trend of automobile intelligence and unmanned, and launches the intelligent assembly line of millimeter wave radar, which has been sold by the automotive electronic customer network.
Deeply cultivate the core customers, enhance the technical affinity with the downstream leader, and the performance flexibility is gradually reflected. Kuaike shares have steadily promoted the major customer strategy in recent years, with the proportion of the top five customers rising from 18% in 2016 to 27% in 2021, strengthening technological affinity and communication with downstream leading companies such as Apple Inc. While smartphone shipments are likely to decline in 2022, shipments of wearables and AR/VR are expected to grow significantly, driving emerging equipment investment demand. With reference to the last innovation cycle of iPhone X launched by Apple Inc in 2017, the revenue of Corey, Lance and other equipment manufacturers increased significantly that year, and we believe that with the continuous promotion of the key customer strategy, Quick's performance flexibility will also be fully demonstrated.
For the first time, it is given a "highly recommended-A" investment rating. We expect the company's operating income to grow by 22.8%, 28.4%, 24.3%, and net profit of 291 million yuan / 3.88 yuan / 479 million yuan in the next three years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9%, 33%, and 24%, respectively. We value the division of the company, the traditional business model of precision welding equipment is mature, and the market growth is relatively stable. With reference to the company's PE-Band from 2018 to 2020, we give a valuation of 20 times in 2023, and the corresponding division returns a net profit of 308 million yuan. Visual inspection, semiconductor packaging and full-line supply are all new business models, with reference to the dynamic valuation under the wind consensus forecast of comparable companies such as moment Technology (32 times in 23 years), Tianzhun Technology (26 times in 23 years) and Xinyichang (33 times in 23 years). Taking into account that Quick's business is in its infancy and the growth rate is higher, we give 2023 40 to 50 times valuation, corresponding to the homing net profit of 80 million yuan. As a result, we can get a reasonable market capitalization of 93.5-10.15 billion yuan in 2023, compared with 6.92 billion yuan at present, and there is still room for 35.1%-46.6% valuation increase. We give Kuaike shares a "highly recommended" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: new business development is not as expected, 3C prosperity is declining, and major customers are not as good as expected.