The company used to be the leader of colored glass shell, and began to transform to photovoltaic glass in 2008. in the future, it will take photovoltaic glass as the pillar and gradually extend to photothermal glass, medicinal glass and other high-end glass industry.
Photovoltaic glass: capacity expansion + cost control + sufficient orders, photovoltaic glass business stable development. From the industry point of view, 1) the demand side: the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules leads to the increase of photovoltaic glass demand; 2) the supply side: there is pressure on the supply side in the future, but the hearing policy will raise the threshold of new capacity and is expected to adjust the relationship between supply and demand. From the company's point of view, 1) production capacity: it is estimated that the annual effective production capacity of the company in 22-25 is 16118,000t, CAGR is 44%. 2) cost: obvious advantage in natural gas cost, gross profit margin is expected to increase by 3.93 million 13.77 PCT after the acquisition of mining rights. 3) order: sufficient on-hand order, sign 8910 million purchase agreement with Jing'ao. At the same time, the company is a superior supplier in the Central Plains region. With Longji, Jinmeng and other component manufacturers setting up factories in Henan one after another, the company is close to the target customers and is expected to continue the trend of full production and full sales in the future.
Photothermal glass: high technical barriers, the company is expected to become a duopoly. The profit margin of photothermal glass business is high, the threshold is high, and the quality control in the production process is difficult. The wind of energy storage and the acceleration of domestic photothermal development, the 2.7GW photothermal project under construction will bring 270000 tons of incremental demand and 1.215 billion incremental amount to the photothermal glass market. Up to now, only Aijiexu (foreign investment) (700t/d) and Ancai (600t/d) have batch production capacity of photothermal glass. Ancai is expected to realize domestic replacement of photothermal glass in the future because of its cost advantages brought by the layout of natural gas and raw materials.
Medicinal glass: Chinese borosilicate glass technology is difficult, the price is high, the company's active layout, domestic replacement at the right time. Medium borosilicate glass is the first choice for international pharmaceutical packaging because of its difficult technology and excellent performance, but at present, China's permeability is low, which was mainly produced by foreign enterprises in the past; injection consistency evaluation promotes the upgrading of Chinese pharmaceutical glass. It is expected that the proportion of borosilicate glass will reach 30% to 40% in the next 5-10 years. The company is currently under construction of 10,000 tons of medium boron-silicon pharmaceutical glass project, and the two phases will be put into production in 23 and 24 years respectively, which will bring new profits for the company in the future.
Investment suggestion: from 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve a return net profit of 1.295,05,617 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.15, 0.47, 0.72 yuan, and give the company's 2023 target PE 19 times, corresponding to the target stock price 8.93 yuan. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: photovoltaic glass overcapacity risk, raw material rising risk, epidemic risk.