Foton Motor issued a profit forecast announcement for 2022. On January 19, 2023, the company issued a profit forecast announcement for 2022. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 60 million yuan, + 5.12 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to the impact of the increase in the impairment of assets related to Baowo in 2021 and the recognition of investment losses by Baowo, and the impact of related matters on Baowo's total profit in 2022 compared with the same period last year. After deducting non-recurrent profit and loss, the annual net profit is expected to be-280 million yuan. The year-on-year decrease in the impact of non-recurrent profit and loss on total profit in 2022 is mainly due to the income from the disposal of Guangdong factory assets in 2021. In a single quarter, 2022Q4 expects to achieve a net profit of-180 million yuan; after deducting non-recurrent profits and losses, 2022Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of-270 million yuan. We downgrade our profit forecast for 2022 and maintain the profit forecast for 2023 Universe 2024. It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 2022-2024 will be 0.60 billion yuan, 0.04 yuan and 0.17 billion yuan per share, respectively, and the corresponding share price PE will be 445.6 percent 18.7 yuan per share. With the repair of light truck and heavy truck sales in the future, the company's performance is expected to achieve rapid growth. Maintain the company's "overweight" rating.
The recovery of the light truck industry is expected, and the company, as the leader of the light truck industry, is expected to fully benefit from the recovery trend of the industry. Sales of the young card industry reached 1.618 million vehicles, the lowest since 2017, down 492000 from 2021. In the short and medium term, with the support of the policy of expanding domestic demand, the economic and logistics demand picks up, the consumer demand for light trucks is expected to pick up, the superimposed country four light trucks are expected to usher in a phase-out cycle, and a new round of replacement demand is expected to be released.
In addition, under the new regulations of large tons, small standard and blue brand, the capacity of light truck bicycles has declined, the number of light trucks and the sales center are expected to move up, and bicycle profitability is also expected to pick up. We expect 2023 young card industry sales will usher in the repair, Fukuda Motor, as the leader of the light truck industry, will fully benefit from the rebound trend of the industry.
The domestic Mercedes-Benz heavy truck is expected to help the company's heavy truck performance growth.
The company's domestic Mercedes-Benz heavy truck Actros and Actros C officially went on the market in December 2022, with a price positioning of 51.88-699800 yuan, which is lower than that of imported heavy trucks with the same configuration, and has a cost-effective advantage. Relying on Mercedes-Benz truck Actros technology platform, the products have reliable quality, leading fuel saving, intelligent safety, comfortable driving competitiveness.
Auman and domestic Mercedes-Benz heavy truck overlay industry warms up, the company's heavy truck performance is expected to achieve rapid growth.
Risk tips: downstream construction is not as expected, raw material prices rise, overseas market expansion is not up to expectations, and so on.