Core ideas:
The acquisition and acquisition of Zhihong Precision has realized the transformation and entered the lithium fast lane. Dexin Technology mainly engaged in road passenger transport and passenger bus station business, the company acquired Zhihong Precision in 2021, the newly increased precision lithium battery automatic cutting mold, lithium battery automatic cutting mold R & D and technical services, cut into the lithium circuit to complete the transformation. After the balance sheet, the company's performance increased sharply, with revenue of 443 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, + 160% year-on-year, and net profit of 142 million yuan, + 118% year-on-year.
The permeability of laminated battery continues to increase, and the cutting mold space is expected to expand. Laminated battery has advantages in safety, stability, energy density and cycle life. In recent years, laminated technology has been iteratively upgraded, and the comprehensive advantages of the current technical route have been shown. In addition, with the increase of cell capacity above 300Ah in the future, the field of energy storage may become a new growth pole of laminated battery.
At present, mainstream battery manufacturers are laying out laminated production capacity. We estimate that the market space for laminated cutting moulds (excluding cutting tools) will be about 4.6 billion yuan by 2025 and 57% for CAGR in 22-25.
Lithium electric cutting mold faucet, technical precipitation + customer expansion to drive high growth. (1) the company is a leading supplier of lithium battery cutting dies in China, leading the industry in terms of product technical specifications and mold life; at the same time, developing coated die products, the business field is further extended. (2) complete after-sales service network, long-term cooperation with ATL and BYD to deeply bind core customers; efficient marketing service system to help high-quality battery manufacturers to further develop; (3) the company's mold structure design and production capacity is outstanding, with advanced processing equipment and mature production management system, core technology self-research and cooperation with customers to build product competitive advantage, performance is expected to continue to improve.
Profit forecast and investment advice. The company continues to develop high-quality customers, and the core products are expected to accelerate with the increase of laminated battery permeability. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5,15 and 2 billion yuan respectively, and the return net profit will be 2.1,6.3 and 850 million yuan respectively. The company will be given a "buy" rating of 25 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value of 93.88 yuan per share for the first time.
Risk hint. Sales of new energy vehicles and power batteries fall short of expectations; laminated technology development and process penetration fall short of expectations; battery capacity progress falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies risks.