This report is read as follows:
Ant Xiaojin capital increase plan is an important node, the program landing policy marginal improvement, undervalued BABA may benefit from liquidity expectations and policy expectations to welcome valuation repair.
Summary:
Liquidity is expected to improve, and the rectification plan is making steady progress. Continue to recommend BABA will benefit from the expected return of liquidity and policy marginal improvement-driven valuation repair opportunities. Maintain the adjusted net profit of FY2023/24/25 to 2089,232.7 billion yuan for the fiscal year of 1870. Considering the competition pattern and prosperity, the SOPT valuation method is adopted to maintain the target price of HK $109.58 and increase the holding.
BABA platform rectification achievements were recognized by the Anti-monopoly Bureau. On November 14, the General Administration of Market Supervision of Japan and the State Anti-monopoly Bureau held an international forum on China's fair competition policy. The director of the State Anti-monopoly Bureau proposed that beneficial exploration had been made in the internal governance of China's platform economy and the construction of enterprise compliance; BABA was invited to participate and exchanged speeches, pointing out that BABA had achieved positive results in compliance governance, which was affirmed by the market regulatory department.
Ant Xiaojin capital increase plan or important breakthrough, state-owned background shareholders into shares. The recent Ant Xiaojin capital increase plan has been launched, and the core highlights are as follows: 1) the scale of the capital increase is determined to be 10.5 billion (previously 22 billion), and the capital after the capital increase is 18.5 billion yuan; 2) the introduction of state-owned shareholders to participate in the capital increase, of which Hangjin Jiuke plans to subscribe 1.85 billion yuan. 10% shareholding The largest shareholder of Hangjin Digital Group is Hangzhou Financial Investment Group, with a shareholding ratio of 54%. The second largest shareholder is Hangzhou Jintou Construction and Development Co., Ltd., and the actual controller is the Hangzhou people's Government.
The marginal improvement of the policy and the key breakthrough of the rectification plan are expected to open the valuation repair. After two years of rectification and reform, the recent policy margin of ① platform economy has slowed down, and the relevant rectification achievements have been gradually recognized; ② ant rectification plan is an important node of BABA's policy supervision trend, and the establishment of relevant equity structure and capital increase plan directly affects the rhythm and extent of BABA's valuation and repair. ③ we believe that the current core driving forces of platform e-commerce and BABA stock price can be divided into three stages from the transaction and fundamental dimensions: short-term:
Hong Kong stocks and US stocks liquidity expected changes driven valuation repair medium-term: policy regulatory direction and important event nodes catalytic drive valuation further upward; medium-and long-term: BABA fundamental inflection point comes from the stability of e-commerce market share after content platform e-commerce gradually reaches the ceiling, and under the support of BABA's own advantages in operation, performance and commodity supply chain, Amoy platform share has hit bottom and picked up.
Risk hint: industry competition aggravates risk; antitrust policy risk; data security supervision risk.