Core idea: the company publishes three quarterly reports for 2022. The operating income of 22Q1-3 is 1.59 billion yuan,-12.1% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother is 11.49 million yuan, 92.3% from the same period last year, deducting 2.14 million yuan from non-net profit,-98.5% from the same period last year 22Q3's operating income is 590 million yuan, year-on-year-24.4%, home net profit 24.08 million yuan, year-on-year-66.0%, deducting non-net profit 19.72 million yuan, year-on-year-71.4%. On the one hand, the retail side is affected by the epidemic, the engineering side takes the initiative to adjust the structure, and the shipments decline compared with the same period last year. On the other hand, the recovery of gross profit margin lags behind, but it has now ushered in an inflection point.
The decline in raw material prices gradually transmitted to inventory costs, gross profit margin ushered in an inflection point. The company's main raw materials are steel. By the end of October, the price of cold-rolled coil has dropped by about 22% since the beginning of the year. According to the average price of cold-rolled coil of Wind,22Q1/Q2/Q3, the average price of cold-rolled coil has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. The change of inventory cost under the moving average method lags behind to a certain extent, reflecting that the Q2 gross profit margin is still declining, but the Q3 decline in raw material prices is gradually transmitted to inventory cost. 22Q3 comprehensive gross profit margin 25.8%, year-on-year-1.8pct, month-on-month + 5.0pct, gross profit margin ushered in the inflection point, and we expect to continue to repair in the fourth quarter.
The income structure continues to improve and the payback and cash flow are optimized. The company's distribution network continues to expand, the customer structure of the project end is being adjusted, the proportion of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises at the 22Q3 project end is further increased, take the initiative to reduce the shipment volume of some private enterprises, and retain customers with better payment terms. Q3 final accounts receivable and bills + prepayments + other receivables 1.32 billion yuan, Q2 end-15.46 million yuan, accounts payable and bills + contract liabilities + other payables 1.56 billion yuan, Q2 end + 45.41 million yuan.
Single-quarter operating cash flow of 100 million yuan, year-on-year + 270 million yuan, payback and cash flow optimization.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 22 to 24 is 0.15 yuan 0.55 yuan per share and 0.82 yuan per share, respectively. According to the latest closing price, the corresponding PE is 56.5,15.9.10.7 times, and the company maintains 18 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 9.89 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The recovery of real estate demand is not as expected, the fluctuation of raw material prices is higher than expected, and the company's production capacity is not as expected.