Hold scarce power grid resources, profitability in the forefront of the industry. At present, there are not many listed companies with complete sales and distribution assets, similar to the three Gorges Water Conservancy are Guidong Electric Power, Leshan Electric Power, Xichang Electric Power, the company's ROE and net interest rate are in the forefront, but the gross profit margin has declined rapidly, and the gross profit margin of sales and distribution has been continuously squeezed.
There is a large loss in non-recurrent profit and loss, which is a drag on the company's net profit performance. The company achieved revenue of 8.25 billion in the first three quarters, an increase of 15.6% over the same period last year, and net profit of 448 million, down 44.8% from the same period last year.
It is mainly due to 150 million losses from fair value changes in the holding and disposal of transactional financial assets and transactional financial liabilities, most of which are caused by the decline in the fair value of the shares of listed companies subscribed for in 2021, which is a serious drag on net profit performance.
In the third quarter, there was a sharp decline in incoming water, a sharp decrease in water and electricity and a decline in net profit. Q3 had revenue of 3.036 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 18.3% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 167 million yuan in a single quarter, down 56% from the same period last year.
The reason is that the situation of incoming water in the third quarter is poor, with water consumption in a single quarter of 440 million kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 72% compared with the same period last year.
Due to poor net profit performance, ROE and operating cash flow declined compared with the same period last year. The net interest rate of 2022Q3 was 5.43%, a decrease of 6.38pct compared with the same period last year. Due to the obvious decline in net interest rate, the ROE of 2022Q3 Company was 4.05%, a decrease of 3.61pct compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by the decline in profit margin of electrolytic manganese business, loss of non-recurrent profit and loss, and reduction of hydropower and electricity. The net operating cash inflow of 2022Q3 was 243 million yuan, down 22.9% from the same period last year.
Distributed photovoltaic, energy storage, integrated energy management, integrated energy service providers are beginning to take shape. At present, the company has integrated energy business, has a certain scale of distributed photovoltaic power supply, heating, cooling, user-side energy storage project scale, with the continuous increase in scale, looking forward to accelerating the release of profits in the future.
Risk tips: a sharp drop in electricity prices, a substantial increase in power purchase costs, and the progress of integrated energy business is not as expected.
Investment advice: cover for the first time and give a "buy" rating. We estimate that from 2022 to 2024, the company's operating income will be 109.2 yuan, 130.7 yuan and 15.26 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 7.3%, 19.7% and 16.8% over the same period last year. The net profit of ownership was 5.83,11.99 and 1.492 billion yuan respectively, an increase of-32.6%, 105.5% and 24.5% over the same period last year. The company was given 17-18 times PE in 2023, corresponding to equity market value of 204-21.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value of 10.67-11.30 yuan per share, a premium of 24% to 31% over the current stock price.
