Main points of investment:
Focus on the development of infectious diseases caused by "superbugs". The company is an innovative pharmaceutical company with the treatment of infectious diseases as the core, with global independent intellectual property rights and international competitiveness, and its founder has more than 30 years of experience in anti-infective drug research and development. since its inception, the company has been focusing on the increasingly serious problem of bacterial drug resistance in the world, with "solving clinical problems, differentiation and innovation" as its core competitiveness. Objective to provide more effective and safe treatment options for the most common and serious drug-resistant bacterial infections. The company has built a comprehensive anti-infective and anti-inflammatory R & D platform. At present, there are three core products that have entered the clinical and / or commercial stage. Contizolide is an oxazolidinone antimicrobial agent for the treatment of multidrug-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. It was approved and listed in China in 2021 and entered the national health insurance catalogue in the same year. MRX-4 is the injection form of Contezolamide, which is currently in the international multicenter III clinical phase. MRX-8 is a polymyxin antimicrobial agent for the treatment of multi-drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Phase I clinical has been completed in the United States and is being carried out in China.
The problem of bacterial drug resistance is becoming more and more serious, and there is an urgent need for effective and safer antibiotics to be put on the market. The burden of death caused by antibiotic resistant infections is extremely high. In 2019, antibiotic resistant infections directly caused about 1.27 million deaths worldwide and indirectly caused about 4.95 million deaths. If no action is taken, antimicrobial resistance will cause 10 million deaths by 2050. In 2020, China's market for treating multi-drug-resistant positive bacteria and negative bacteria is 4.1 billion and 18.9 billion respectively. With the problem of multiple drug-resistant infections becoming more and more serious, the market demand for new antibiotics for the treatment of multi-drug-resistant bacteria infections is increasing day by day. The above two market segments are expected to grow to 10.8 billion and 42.2 billion respectively by 2030.
Global sales of Contezolamide tablets and injection MRX-4 are expected to peak at 6 billion yuan, while sales in China and the United States of MRX-8 are expected to reach 6.6 billion yuan. Contezolamide (and injection MRX-4) is mainly used to treat the infection of multidrug-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. It is estimated that the sales peak of Contezolamide and its injection in the Chinese market will reach 2.1 billion yuan. It is expected that Contezolamide (and injection MRX-4) will be available in the United States in 2026. Sales in the United States are expected to peak at US $400 million and US $200 million in markets outside China and the United States. The global market space is expected to reach 6 billion yuan. MRX-8 is expected to be listed in the Chinese market in 2027, with a sales peak of 3 billion yuan in the domestic market. MRX-8 is expected to be listed in the United States market in 2028, with a sales peak of $560 million in the United States market and 6.6 billion yuan in the Chinese and American markets of MRX-8.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be-250 million yuan,-551 million yuan and-443 million yuan respectively. By using the absolute valuation method, the equity value of the company on December 27, 2022 is 10.858 billion, covering for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of R & D failure or schedule delay, the risk of product sales falling short of expectations, and the risk of continuous loss.