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中国波顿(3318.HK):香精香料行业龙头企业 第二增长曲线电子烟业务发展迅猛

Bolton, China (3318.HK): Second growth curve for leading companies in the fragrance industry, e-cigarette business is developing rapidly

第一上海 ·  Dec 16, 2022 16:41  · Researches

  A leading enterprise in the fragrance and fragrance industry, the market competitiveness of the e-cigarette business continues to strengthen: China Bolton Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the “Company” or “China Bolton”) was founded in Shenzhen in 1991, and the Group was listed on the Hong Kong Main Board in 2005 as the first company listed in Hong Kong in the Chinese fragrance and fragrance industry. The company's main business is fragrance enhancers, food flavors, daily essences and e-cigarette products. In 2016, it expanded into a new type of tobacco business through the acquisition of Jiri e-cigarette company. Through 30 years of development and accumulation in the flavor and fragrance industry, the traditional flavor and fragrance sector is in a leading position in the market, and the new tobacco sector is expected to continue to strengthen market competitiveness with the layout of the entire industry chain. The flavor and fragrance business benefits from various favorable factors and is expected to continue to improve: the company's flavor and fragrance division currently deals with flavor and fragrance products such as tobacco flavors, food flavors, and daily chemical flavors. The variety has reached more than 7,000, covering all aspects of extraction, R&D, application, production, and sales services. The core product, tobacco essence, has covered 17 domestic tobacco companies and has maintained good cooperative relationships. It has more than 15 years of cooperative experience. Customers focus on R&D and supply chain management, which coincides with Bolton's long-term pursuit of competitive leadership. In the future, as the penetration rate of new tobacco products continues to increase, the amount of tobacco flavors used in HNB products will increase. The amount of HNB tobacco flavor used is about 5-10 times that of traditional tobacco, bringing new growth to the size of the tobacco flavor market, and the company's tobacco flavor business is expected to usher in new growth. As the spin-off of the A-share listing of Dongguan Bolton, the main entity in the food fragrance and fragrance business, the company promises that revenue and profit will maintain an annual growth rate of no less than 10%, and is expected to benefit from an increase in A-share valuation after a successful listing. The layout of the entire new tobacco industry chain has developed, and subsequent growth can be expected: the company's new tobacco business layout has formed an integrated industrial chain system from supply chain integration, atomizer modulation, product design and development, manufacturing, brand marketing, and domestic and foreign market expansion. The company's eight subsidiary subsidiaries have now obtained exclusive tobacco production licenses, covering e-cigarette oil, production of OEM e-cigarettes and e-cigarette brands. It is one of the few companies with a license for the entire industry chain. On the upstream raw material side of the new tobacco industry chain, based on years of experience in the flavor and fragrance industry, we ensure a stable supply of e-cigarette oil and HNB tobacco flavors; the midstream manufacturing side has the earliest large-scale foundry in China. Huizhou and Fuzhou factories provide manufacturing services for well-known domestic and foreign e-cigarette brands and tobacco companies; on the downstream brand side, the company has a rich brand matrix. Among them, Meike, Firearms, Xili, and YPEN have obtained sales licenses, and continue to make good progress in product variety, quality, and market development. The company has a strong competitive advantage in the disposable products market. Its own brands and OEM products are exported to South Korea, Europe, America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other regions. BUBBLE MON maintains the highest market share for similar products in Korea, has rich international experience, and is expected to open up more overseas markets. I am optimistic about the company's future development. The target price is HK$4.48, which is the first time it covers a purchase rating: with the implementation of domestic regulatory policies and tax policies, the e-cigarette industry will develop in a steady and orderly manner in compliance, and the company is expected to continue to benefit as a leading enterprise in the industry. We forecast the company's revenue for 2022 to 2024 to be 2.2 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan and 3.5 billion yuan respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company will be 180 million yuan, 260 million yuan and 340 million yuan, respectively. According to the development of the company's various businesses, we gave the company a target price of HK$4.48, corresponding to 15 times PE in 2023. There is room for an increase of 82.7% compared to the current price. It was covered for the first time, and a purchase rating was given.

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