Main points of investment
Jinchen shares: 2023 HJT equipment is expected to win 5GW orders, TOPCon equipment has formed a small batch of orders on December 15, the company's third quarter 2022 results presentation (Shanghai Road Show Center) 1) HJT equipment: 2023 is expected to receive 5GW orders, customer verification is smooth, industrialization is expected to speed up the product end-the company's microcrystal process cavity in the domestic head customers for testing. The mass production equipment has been sent to the customer and is now undergoing installation testing. It is expected that the data will be released within 3 months.
Order side-after the good data of the main head customers come out in the first half of 2023, they will enter the market to fight for orders. It is expected that they can get orders around 5GW by the end of 2023, and the company will have the ability to provide HJT full-line solutions in the future.
Industrial end-in November 2022, Longji announced that its independently developed silicon HJT battery conversion efficiency of 26.81%, breaking the world record (previously created by Japanese companies), HJT battery industrialization is expected to accelerate.
2) TOPCon equipment: the company has delivered all tubular thermal processes + vacuum equipment and processes. Among them, the tubular PECVD prototype has been tried out in Jing O, Dongfang Risheng, Jingke and other customers, and is progressing smoothly, and has formed a small batch of domestic customer TOPCON tubular PECVD equipment orders.
Thick accumulation: photovoltaic HJT+TOPCon equipment are moving towards the head, module equipment leader will take off again 1) HJT equipment: the cost of HJT per W is expected to be level with PERC in 2023, and the market space for HJT equipment orders in 2025 is over 60 billion. The company's first mass production microcrystal equipment has been successfully delivered and is undergoing pilot / mass production level verification. We expect that the order space for HJT equipment in 2025 is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan, and the CAGR in 2020-2025 is 98%. The company's PECVD equipment capacity is large, the cost is low, and the equipment progress is expected to exceed expectations.
2) TOPCon equipment: the peak period of TOPCon production expansion is from 2023 to 2025, with an average annual equipment market of 36.9 billion yuan. The company employs senior scientist of Ningbo Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences as the company's chief scientist, and the tubular PECVD prototype has been tried out in Jingao, Oriental Risheng, Jingke and other customers, and is progressing smoothly. We expect that 2023-2025 will be the peak of TOPCon production expansion, with a total market size of 110.7 billion yuan (an annual average of 36.9 billion yuan), the company will benefit.
3) throw the experimental line into the "integrated" supplier layout of N-type battery + module equipment: the company invests 102 million yuan to build a "high-efficiency battery & high-efficiency component R & D laboratory", which will be gradually completed at the beginning of 2023, providing a complete platform for the R & D and testing of high-efficiency battery + components.
4) capacity expansion: the company plans to invest 400 million yuan to build Jinchen Intelligent Manufacturing Base in East China, and plans to set up its own capital to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary, Nantong Jinnuo, to expand photovoltaic equipment capacity with the help of the supporting advantages of the Yangtze River Delta industrial chain. At the same time, the company's Qinhuangdao subsidiary invested 400 million yuan to expand the production of laminators, demonstrating confidence in future component equipment orders.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company's photovoltaic HJT and TOPCon equipment are both expected to move towards the head. The company's net profit in 2022-2024 is expected to be RMB 0.91 billion, an increase of 51%, 131% and 92%, corresponding to PE of 110-48-25. It is optimistic that the company's photovoltaic HJT and TOPCon equipment are heading for the head, and the component equipment leader will welcome the second take-off and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: HJT/TOPCon battery equipment does not advance as fast as expected; downstream production expansion is not as expected