Real estate policy warms up and is optimistic about the company's performance growth next year.
Under the influence of the general environment, the company expects revenue / profit to grow this year compared with the same period last year, but the year-on-year growth rate is affected by external environmental disturbance, which is under great pressure to complete the task set by the board of directors at the beginning of the year. In the context of the warming of real estate policy, the company has done a lot of layout of various sectors, superimposed next year's management costs and financial costs are expected to control, we are optimistic about the company's performance growth next year. We maintain the company's 2022-2024 return net profit forecast of RMB 278 million, change the company valuation system to 2023, taking into account the company's ROE industry leadership, give the company 23 years of 35xPE (comparable company Wind consensus forecast PE average 31x), target price 16.59 yuan (previous value: 14.44 yuan), maintain the "buy" rating.
Under the influence of the general environment, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's performance this year has been disturbed to a certain extent: 1) the new construction testing business of the construction plate has been greatly affected by the decrease in the area of new construction of real estate this year, but the overall growth of testing business such as stock housing, infrastructure construction and rail transit is relatively good, and the company expects revenue from the construction sector to increase compared with the same period last year, and profits may decline compared with the same period last year. 2) the development of traditional building material testing in material testing plate is relatively stable, and the growth trend of new material testing is good. 3) the company expects that the income / profit of the environment and food farmers will increase by 10% this year compared with the same period last year, but the increase in related requirements will lead to an increase in staffing and gross profit margin may be affected. 4) Certification business, technical services and other businesses have developed rapidly this year (from a small base); 5) Intelligent manufacturing business, due to consolidation factors, may grow this year compared with the same period last year, but the growth rate is affected by increased operating pressure in the upstream steel / cement industry. The impact such as the reduction in capital expenditure fell short of the company's expectations.
The unfavorable factors of business development are gradually eliminated + reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and we are optimistic that the policy of the real estate industry will pick up next year, and we think that the company's new building testing business will resume next year; at the same time, the company's stock house inspection, response to construction order 131 and layout in water conservancy, transportation and other fields will also release performance one after another; the company's construction inspection performance is expected to hit bottom and rebound. Environmental testing plate, the third soil survey will continue to be an important growth direction next year. The upstream of smart manufacturing business has shown signs of picking up since October this year, with a substantial increase in new contracts in the steel sector since October compared with the same period last year, and there is more room for potential transformation in the cement sector, and we are optimistic about the growth trend of this business next year. The development of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions has been hindered to some extent this year, and it is expected to restore the pace of the company after adjusting the convenience next year. In terms of expenses, the company will strengthen the control of management expenses, and the financial expenses after the issuance of convertible bonds are also expected to decline.
Target price 16.59 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating
We expect the company's 22-24 return net profit to be RMB 3450.432 million, corresponding to EPS0.38/0.47/0.59 yuan, and to give the company a 23-year 35xPE (comparable company Wind unanimously expected PE average 31x), with a target price of 16.59RMB, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the real estate industry rebounded less than expected, acquisition progress and integration capacity are not as expected, and the decline in costs is not as expected.