Investment event
According to the company's three-quarter report, operating income in the first three quarters of 2022 reached 591 million yuan, down 14.72 percent from the same period last year; non-return net profit was-38.49 million yuan, down 122.08 percent from the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2022, the operating income was 107 million yuan, down 68.89% from the same period last year, and the non-return net profit was-77.93 million yuan, down 171.37% from the same period last year.
The gross profit margin in the third quarter was 13.02%, down 21.33 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Main points of investment
The pace of project bidding and implementation on the grid side is slow, and the change of income structure affects the level of gross profit margin due to epidemic situation, extreme weather power preservation and other factors, power grid customer bidding and project implementation are affected to a certain extent, and the company's operating income has declined. There were some changes in the product structure in the third quarter of this year. Revenue from the business of fire robots and live working robots decreased compared with the same period last year, while the gross margin of some other non-grid robot products was relatively low at the initial stage of expansion. The company's gross profit margin has declined to a certain extent compared with the same period last year.
Power grid products are updated iteratively, and the bidding rhythm is expected to return to normal
The slow implementation of power grid customer bidding and project implementation this year is the result of the superposition of the above-mentioned factors. Consider the 14th five-year Plan
During this period, China Southern Power Grid plans to invest nearly 3 trillion yuan, and clearly put forward a plan to "speed up the intelligent transformation of power grid infrastructure." We expect that the follow-up investment in relevant directions is expected to accelerate, and bidding is expected to usher in compensatory growth in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. At the same time, the company's live robots, unmanned inspection and other new product updates and launches are expected to bring structural increments to the company.
The development and promotion of new products outside the network is smooth, and it is expected to contribute to performance flexibility next year. Since the beginning of this year, the company has actively promoted new products in the fields of unmanned cleaning, charging, semiconductors and so on. Unmanned cleaning field, the company is currently actively engaged in commercial office buildings, factories, residential and other scenes of product promotion. In the charging field, the company launched the industry's first charging robot product in June this year, and promoted new buildings in areas such as Suzhou. In the semiconductor field, the company mainly promotes robot products for material handling and loading and unloading in wafer factories, which is cheaper than existing overseas solutions, has been mass tested by downstream customers, and is expected to win orders next year. In the field of rail transportation, this year's order for the company's new product vehicle inspection robot has also been increased.
The volume of new products in these new application areas is expected to contribute to performance flexibility in the year after next.
Profit forecast and valuation
Downgrade earnings forecast and maintain "buy" rating. The company is a leading manufacturer of special robots for electric power in China, with the introduction of new products to increase revenue. Considering the factors such as bidding and slow implementation of power grid projects, and out of caution, the company's profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.85,4.94 and 765 million yuan (before the reduction is 5.62,7.65 and 947 million yuan respectively). The corresponding EPS is 1.37,2.38,3.68 yuan per share (before the reduction is 2.70,3.68,4.56 yuan per share respectively), and the corresponding PE is 27,15,10 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The intelligent investment in power grid is not as expected, the market competition is intensified, and the progress of new product promotion is not as expected.