Monthly sales became regular compared with the same period last year, and the ranking of sales rose 16 places during the year. According to the company's business announcement in October, the first sales volume in October 22 was 8.67 billion yuan, which was + 17.3% compared with the same period last year (the sales amount of T0p30 real estate enterprises was-24.8% compared with the same period last year). After the month-on-month sales became regular in September, the first sales were further improved, achieving positive growth in a single month compared with the same period last year. Monthly sales area of 310000 square meters, year-on-year + 15.9%, the average sales price is 27958 yuan / flat, + 1.2% year-on-year. From January to October 2022, the first shares achieved sales of 73.4 billion yuan,-26.9% year-on-year, sales area of 2.646 million square meters, year-on-year-18.2%, ranking 22nd in sales this year, up 16 places over 21 years.
Deep ploughing Beijing market, sales resilience and reliable. As a local state-owned enterprise in Beijing, it opened the deep ploughing Beijing market for the first time and ranked first in Beijing for seven consecutive years. In the first half of 22, it first obtained only one case of land in Beijing, and in the third quarter, with the improvement of its own business conditions, it acquired two cases of land. Due to the fact that the soil auction market is not as expected, Beijing will push four or five more batches of land supply this year. The current opening sales situation has been further improved, and a certain level of land acquisition can be maintained. Take advantage of the soil shot and push to continuously replenish the land reserves in Beijing. In the middle of 22 years, the company's land reserves in Beijing accounted for 36% of the total land reserves, and the proportion is expected to continue to increase:
The policy of purchase restrictions in Beijing has been relaxed and the available period has been continuously optimized. The Beijing Housing and Construction Commission issued a statement on November 8 that the "double limit" policy was abolished because the Taima area of Tongzhou was placed under the management of the Beijing Economic Development District. After the adjustment, some non-local families and some Beijing families can buy a commercial house in Taima area. The first project, Jinyue County, which is currently located in Taiwan and Malaysia, will benefit in the short term. This policy is the first time in this cycle for first-tier cities to adjust the purchase restriction policy, which is of great significance and can be continuously optimized.
Profit forecast and investment advice. The company's land reserve is of high quality, sales performance is improved, and future profits are more flexible. the current PB valuation of the company is only 0.4 times, taking into account the thickening of the accounts received in advance at the end of 22Q3 and the net assets (B+) of 30.8 billion yuan after discount. We maintain the prior fair value of 7.22 yuan per share, which corresponds to a reasonable valuation of 0.6 times PB for 22Q3, and maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The improvement of the Beijing market is not as expected: the recovery of the industry boom is not as expected, affecting the sales scale and profit margin; the policy environment is improving faster than expected; and the financing environment is deteriorating.